Stay Weather Aware: Wednesday morning commute looks tricky

Joe’s Weather Blog: Crisp start with more chilly air on tap (WED-4/22)

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Good morning…temperatures this morning tanked to the mid 30s in the area with KCI dropping to 33°. The record is 25° for today so not even close to record territory. Still chilly though but with a good deal of sunshine we should recover somewhat today. Still though a below average day today.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy. There is a rather significant area of rain in OK…it’s possible it may send up some moisture our way this morning…aside from that though it should be a nice day overall with highs around 60°

Tonight: fair skies and chilly again with lows back down into the 30s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs well into the 60s.

Discussion:

Our weather will be rather quiet for the next 336 hours or so as we wait on a storm system to come out of the southwestern part of the country and move into the Plains on Friday and Saturday. It’s effects on our local weather are still though a bit of a question. I noticed that the SPC has highlighted much of our region for the potential of severe weather but I’m still not convinced things will play out with a lot of severe weather for KC proper.

The storm itself is spinning in southern CA right now.

 

It’s actually a pretty decent little storm. It produced a tornado yesterday in far southern California. As it eventually moves eastwards it will be weakening but still have some energy when it crosses our region later Friday into Saturday morning.

There is a lot that has too happen in the atmosphere here for us to get into severe weather mode…and my main concern right now is the amount of surface moisture return we’re going to get here. Dewpoints may struggle to come up later tomorrow into Friday with the surface storm being so far west of KC into Friday. Model solutions vary on this point though. Some modeling has our dewpoints 55-60° which would be enough (not great but enough). Some model data isn’t as “juicy” with the moisture till after that.

As usual any convection or rain and cloud cover may play a role into things as well. I’m not going to post model data at this point this morning because I’m not confident it’s handling things correctly. With that said I will share the SPC forecast with you, if for no other reason than too at least remind you to start paying attention to the potential of active weather, mainly Friday evening in the KC region.

 

If I were to take a stab at this, my initial inclination would be a higher threat of nastier storms in central and south central KS later Friday. Those storms would then move northeastwards towards KC Friday evening/night. Should they be able to hold together, we could get severe weather here. I’m still though not confident iin that outcome for KC proper. I could see ways that areas south, closer to SW MO and SE KS (perhaps even the southern parts of our viewing area)…could have a higher risk Friday evening/night as a low level jet get’s involved with the dynamics of the storm. There will be indices favoring rotation in the lower part of the atmosphere as well so that is something to consider.

The GFS has another significant storm early next week…it seems all alone though at this point. Even the Canadian model has this farther south. My inclination at this point is a farther south (non GFS) solution.

So let’s pay attention to the set-up on Friday.

Joe

 

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