Joe’s Weather Blog: The More Things Change … (THU-4/30)

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As we finish off the month of April…in spectacular fashion I might add, things are gradually changing in the weather pattern heading into the 1st week of March. Our weather has been California-like for the last several days with some nice breezes out there. The only thing missing has been the Pacific Ocean…

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and very pleasant. A great weather start for the Royals. Temperatures dropping to near 45° towards daybreak.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and pleasant again with highs into the 70s.

Saturday: There may be some scattered showers in the region, especially N MO and NE KS…how much is actually in the KC area is questionable. Highest chances seem to be during the 1st part of the day. Right now I have little confidence in how the models are portraying the rain chances tomorrow. Regardless skies should be mostly cloudy for awhile if nothing else. Highs in the 70s.

Sunday: Warmer and a little more humid. Windy as well as temperatures should pop into the 80s with 20-30 MPH winds.

Discussion:

This is the only thing we’re missing right now…on this beautiful spring day in KC.

image via monterey.com

It’s been wonderful for the last few days with a pretty decent (almost feeling like) California breeze out there.

Over the next few days though the winds will gradually come more towards the south (as opposed to from the east) and this will gradually seed the atmosphere with some moisture…it will be a somewhat slow process however. It starts though over the weekend…and once the moisture in the form of higher dewpoints arrives…it may stick around for most of next week. The dewpoints should at least creep into the 50s as this process occurs…not exactly overwhelming and not really all that noteworthy except for the fact that they’ve been well below that threshold for the last few days.

As far as the rain chances do indeed go…there will be a chance as mentioned on Saturday…and another chance on Monday and perhaps the best chance next WED and/or THU. The SAT/MON chances are not overly impressive at this point at least in terms of coverage. The WED/THU scenario for next week looks somewhat more promising…but whether or not we’re in the bulls-eye or whether perhaps the higher chances are in the southern Plains and then we get the trailing storms remains to be seen.

In looking at the model forecasts…really confidence in any one day remains low. At this juncture the drier days appear to be Sunday and Tuesday. Temperatures during this time frame will be in the 70s (when there are extra clouds) or the 80s (when enough sunshine is out there). Overnight lows are going to be milder as well compared to what we’ve seen recently. So at this point it appears at least the 1st 7 days or so of May will be above average overall for temperatures.

We will be needing the rain shortly…dry weeks are common and wind in the spring is very common…but that combination with loads of sunshine will tend to dry out the top part of the soil…so we’ll be looking for some rain next week. Loads of potential…even the potential for some localized flooding in parts of the Plains as well…but again we’ll just have to see how things set up early next week. Here is a look at 2 rainfall forecasts over the next 7 days…

 

now a closer look into the Plains…click to make it larger.

hpc_total_precip_mc_28

 

By the way…the upper Midwest can really use a good soaking of rain…things have been pretty dry up there recently…and we’re now starting to see some signs of a drought forming there…

 

The darker orange color represents “severe” drought status while the tan-ish color is “moderate” drought. 92% of the state is under drought conditions…

In reality as far as our weather goes here…forecast thoughts haven’t changed at all in the last 3 days…nor am I expecting any major revelations about next week over the next couple of days either…

Have a great day and I may try to update the blog tomorrow…if not then certainly on Saturday as usual.

Joe

 

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