Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend warm-up + next week chances (SAT-5/2)

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Good afternoon…some pesky showers in terms of timing but some needed rainfall across N MO this morning as doppler indications are that some areas have had 1/4-1/2″ of rainfall. For the most part around KC proper we’ve had a few “sprinkle” storms and on the south-side of KC not even that as of this writing. The south side though may get some sprinkles/light showers between 2-3PM or so…as a weak disturbance comes through before skies turn mostly sunny and clear for later this afternoon-tonight.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant with lows back into the 50s. The winds may be a bit more noticeable towards daybreak.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs 80-85°. Winds will be form the south at 20-30 MPH…. a windier day is expected. Rain chances are under 20%

Monday: There is a chance of some scattered storms in the AM…however it appears N MO and NE KS have better chances in the later part of the day into Monday night.

Discussion:

Thought we’d start the blog with a geographical twist…since a somewhat unusual earthquake occurred today. Typically I’ve mentioned stronger than usual earthquakes in OK…but this one occurred in MI…outside of Kalamazoo.

 

Earthquakes here are rather unusual and this 4.2 was not that far from the record of 4.6 in the same general region back in 1947 which actually had some damage associated with it. While the numbers are not that far apart…the 4.6 quake released almost 4x’s as much energy (stronger) and was 2.5 x’s bigger.

Back to meteorology…

Earlier this past week I wrote a weather blog and talked about next week’s coming weather. In the big picture of things not a lot has really changed. An increasingly warm and somewhat more humid air mass is going to be developing/building through the region. This will result in plenty of days with highs in the 70s and 80s with milder overnight lows. Dewpoints should be well into the 50s and potentially into the 60s as well…so a more summer-ish air mass will be building into the region.

In terms of rain chances however, and after a dry week for most…we can use a drink of water via Mother Nature…the chances are fleeting and not very widespread for awhile. There are really no strong waves that will be moving through the region through Tuesday so that aspect of things won’t help to tap and spark off the moisture that’s moving in. There are no fronts expected either of any noteworthiness. There will be a front across SE NE and SW IA that will stall and fall apart over the next few days…this will result in higher storm chances across NW MO and NE KS and points to the NW of there. The latest NAM model today shows this trend rather well through late Tuesday.

nam_total_precip_mw_28

From there though…there is something to pay attention too…and that would be the potential of a disturbance riding with the SW flow aloft to move into the Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday triggering off storms to the west and SW of KC…which potentially (the rain at least) work it’s way towards the KC area during the day and night Wednesday. How much rain we get and what shape those storms (rain) are in remains to be seen. At this point severe weather is not expected in the KC area of any significance this coming week.

So basically it appears that there could be some rain in the area Monday…we should be dry Tuesday…additional rains (perhaps somewhat more widespread) are possible Wednesday…scattered stuff Thursday and again Friday. Nothing really definitive in terms of the timing at this point…it’s just going to be one of those weeks where the vast majority of the time is dry but at times there will be a threat of showers/storms moving through parts of the area.

So with all that said…let’s take a look at some of my twitter (@fox4wx) favorites for the week…

That’s it for the day…I’ll see about trying and updating the blog tomorrow.

Joe

 

 

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