Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain Chances Are Like Herding Cats (THU-5/7)

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Late blog today and I’m not sure I’m going to be able to get one out tomorrow due to station commitments…it was a crazy day for sure for the weather and for the FOX 4 Weather Team!

Forecast:

Tonight: Showers/storms still likely in the region through early tomorrow morning. Lows near 60°. Locally heavy rain is possible SW of KC it appears. See the discussion for updated radar.

Tomorrow: Higher rain chances appear to be during the 1st part of the day. With that said, it appears that the weather will just be changeable from now through Sunday. Hour by hour things will be affected by what happens the previous hour. Where the sun comes out, instability will increase…where it rains temperatures will be cooler. It is what it is. Highs 75-80°

Saturday: Mixed clouds/sun with storm chances, although the bigger chances may wait till later in the evening and overnight Saturday/SUN AM. Highs near 80°

Sunday: Morning storms should exit. Then the potential for new thunderstorm to re-fire in the PM. This would be the highest chance of severe weather in the KC region. Although depending on how the storms hold together later Saturday night…we could have some wind/hail issues with that activity as well. The later day stuff may run the gamut of all different types of severe weather. Still too early to be overly concerned but it’s something to monitor.

Discussion:

A HUGE thank you to the tens of thousands who came out tot he “K” today. We helped the Royals sell almost 18,000 tickets for the game just for School Day. It was a blast and we’re soooo thankful the weather cooperated in the morning. Unfortunately though the rains came 30 minutes or so after the show and it delayed the start of the game for over 2 hours. The Royals are working on a plan B for those who had to leave early and couldn’t get to see the game. Watch fox4kc.com and the newscasts for additional information.

 

We filled the entire (and then some) lower bowl and had a bunch of people in the upper deck by 10:30 or so. The commissioner of MLB stopped in KC to check things out too! He talked to all the students for a couple of minutes as well.

So what about this crazy weather? Well the title of the blog says it all. I feel bad about not being able to time out the rain any better in the forecast but on rare occasions these situations present themselves and when you think it will be wet…it’s dry and vice-versa. Forecasting areas of rain that don’t exist…and forecasting waves in the atmosphere that don’t exist is nearly impossible, sometimes even from 24 hours out.

Last night I had a strong feeling it would rain…I thought the best chances would be before 11AM…instead I was about 2 hours off with that, and the better chances really held off till about lunch. When I woke up and looked at radar, I thought we might be in good shape…then by 9AM or so…when the storms fired near Emporia and you could see a broad scale twist in the echoes, indicating a wave in the atmosphere… we knew we were going to be playing with fire with the rain moving through. It’s the reason why last night I stressed to bring rain gear to the game…it appears that everyone was prepared for the rain so I guess things sort of worked out.

As far as what’s going on out there right now…here is a look at radar…

 

I’m watching with interest what’s happening in the southern Plains area as well…should any disturbance be generated from the storms ongoing down there and move NEwards towards the KC area tomorrow AM…we again have more opportunities for rainfall in the KC area.

On top of all this there is also a cold front coming towards the area…it will move through tomorrow AM…and it may help to reduce the rain chances as the late morning moves along into the afternoon.

Severe weather is expected in the Plains on Saturday. This in particular could be a nasty day from Wichita to Oklahoma City and westwards into SW KS and W OK. Large tornadoes are possible out there. Then whatever comes together will congeal into a mass of rain and move this way…later Saturday night. We’ll see how well it holds together as it approaches the region.

Sunday’s set-up is more of a classic severe weather set-up for the KC area. Depending on the timing of the clear and the instability that set’s up during the day Sunday, we could be looking as some strong to severe storms in the afternoon/evening. There was a noticeable slowdown in the progression of things in the data today…and IF things slow down even more, potentially the worst is west of here. Lots to watch for Sunday.

 

sfc

 

A lot will be changing regarding the situation on Sunday…suffice it to say both Saturday (well west) and Sunday could be rather significant weather days in the Plains region.

 

Have a great night and happy Friday!

Joe

 

 

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