Joe’s Weather Blog: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Till 10PM (SUN-5/10)
Well so far so good as far as the forecast goes…which is always a dangerous statement to make for a meteorologist because that is when things end up blowing up in your face sometimes. The rain and thunder is moving through the region as I type this…it won’t last for much longer and there will be several dry hours for the rest of the afternoon…
Happy Mother’s Day!
Forecast: (4:45 PM issuance)
Tonight: A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect till 10PM. A cold front will light up with at least some storm activity west of the KC area. That activity will move towards the NE while the line moves eastwards. That will be monitored for severe weather chances…although the higher chances may stay west of KC where there is more heating. At this point the main risks appear to be 1″ hail and perhaps an isolated wind gust to 60 mph. This is still NOT set in stone because the atmosphere is getting worked over as I type this. As of 4:45 PM I’m not overly impressed by the cells that I’m seeing on the KS side. No reports of severe weather have been received thus far in E KS late this afternoon
Tomorrow and Tuesday: Cooler and drier air sweeps into the region before 12AM…sending temperatures into the 45-50° at daybreak and only allowing highs to be in the mid 60s tomorrow. Winds will be from the west at 15-25 MPH on Monday with lighter winds Tuesday and highs in the upper 60s (top 10 weather day it appears!)
A Tornado Watch has been issued for a few of our far eastern counties towards central MO. This watch does NOT include KC or St Joseph.
Farther west a severe thunderstorm watch is up till 10PM for all of W MO and E KS.
Perfect nap weather for Mom early this afternoon with the rain and the storms moving through. Things though will be changing as radar clearly shows a rather quick moving band of rain…so drier weather will be moving into the region shortly.
As I type this there have been a few pea sized hail reports from the storms…the leading edge of the storms are intensifying and are going into a somewhat more unstable atmosphere towards the NE of the KC area where temperatures are in the mid-upper 70s. Some quarter-sized hail is possible (severe storms) farther to the NE of the metro between 1-3PM.
Meanwhile the satellite pictures show the clouds thinning somewhat behind this band of rain moving through…
Farther west that line in the cloud cover across central KS as I type this is the cold front which will be pulling eastwards slowly during the rest of the day. Skies are clearing somewhat ahead of the front so the atmosphere is trying to get unstable. One way of looking for the instability is by looking at an parameter called the CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy
It’s complicated to explain but suffice it to say we’re looking for high values (1000s usually) without the blue shading in the above image (shows the strength of the cap). In the image above you can see the instability in N MO and also developing near the Wichita area…that should spread northwards ahead of the front this afternoon. Higher the CAPE the more instability there is that the atmosphere can tap into in a sense. It doesn’t guarantee storms in all cases however.
So the front will continue eastwards and should move into the KC area between 8-10PM from west to east. It’s not out of the question we’ll get additional storms re-firing with the front later today…so a break in the rain then additional storms possible early this evening. How strong those evening storms are for KC is a question…but right now I think they will remain mostly below severe limits. With that said I won’t be shocked if there are a few warnings out there for some of the storms, especially on the KS side. The atmosphere may just not have enough time to recover from the afternoon convection despite some sunshine moving back into the region for widespread development of severe weather.
Concerning overall severe weather potential…here is the latest from the SPC…
and the current watches (red-tornado/blue-severe thunderstorm)
and the regional radar…
This has been a fascinating week for weather watchers…all sorts of tornadoes including another 30+ reports in KS alone yesterday…OKC and the DFW areas have been hit with just about everything from floods to tornadoes to hail to winds…blizzard conditions are ongoing across the western Plains. In SD this morning there was a destructive tornado and over 6″ of snow separated by about 200 miles. CO/WY/NE/SD have all seen a bunch of snow…Denver had over 4″ I believe…
but that wasn’t even in the top 20 for snow totals in May (I was surprised by this)
Meanwhile Ana came ashore earlier with winds of near 60 MPH or so…in the Carolinas.
Busy week for sure…it will be nice to have some settled weather for a bit.