Joe’s Weather Blog: Rainy Times + Severe Weather? (THU-5/14)

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Good afternoon…another decent soaker in the region  overnight and this morning with rainfall amounts in the 1/2″-1″ range…overall a good rain for the vegetation and a rain that will soak the soil again for awhile. More rain is on the way over the next 10 days with periodic decent chances coming next week as well it appears.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing skies initially then some low clouds may reform with increasing humidity. Lows should be pretty steady and may even increase a degree or two to 65°.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with scattered storms possible. There will be a weak warm front in the region so the timing of the storm chances is problematic. Let’s rn with a 30% chance during the day into the evening hours…it will be mild and rather humid with highs near 75-80° assuming we get enough sunshine.

Saturday: Variable clouds with increasing storm chances beginning in the morning. It may be just one of those “iffy” type days overall. The risk of severe weather during the day is not particularly high at this point for the KC area. Locally heavy rain though may be an issue and with saturated soils that will need to be watched…really through early Sunday.

Sunday: The highest chance of rain should be before daybreak (for the weekend as a whole). Overall though after the rain moves through early in the AM, we should dry out nicely for the day. Highs should be in the 80s

Discussion:

Well I was curious to see the changes in the Drought Monitor today and they were significant across the southern Plains and even closer to home. The “moderate” drought status that was into SE KS has been wiped away and the southern Plains situation has improved markedly.

Pretty amazing to see the results in TX over the last couple of years…here is the report from today (R)…compared to last year (L). Click on that image to make it mroe readable

Capture

Now take a look at 2 years ago (L) and today (R)

Capture

Here is a closer in view of the region over the past several years…

So certainly a marked improvement for the southern Plains region. With that said you can see where the drought has focused…into the western 1/4 of the country.

There is actually a sliver of good news for the state of CA as a somewhat unusual storm for mid-May is going to bring much needed moisture into CA. Here is the amount of precip, mostly rain, that is expected out there…

hpc_total_precip_cw_14

Los Angeles is still over 6″ below average this year with only about 2 1/3″ of rain this year so far. It’s possible that they may break some daily rainfall records and depending on how much they get over the next couple of days…they could easily fall into the top 10 wettest months of May. Here are the top 20 wettest Mays

Capture

Meanwhile back home in KC…we’re now up to 9.43″ or so in 2015 and almost 3: for the month which is a little shy of 1″ above average. If your curious…here is a look at the top 20 wettest May months for KC

Capture

It may seem like it’s been very wet…and we’ve actually had 11 out of the 14 days so far with a trace of rain or more…but in the big picture we’re only barely in the top 30 of wettest 1st 14 days of the month in terms of total rainfall.

OK now onto the weekend storm situation. I’m not overly thrilled about a lot of severe weather in the KC area this weekend. The main concern I would have would be later Saturday evening into early Sunday. It’s not exactly a great time period for severe weather…and what I’m envisioning at this point is an pretty decent area of storms (some severe) way out towards the west of KC…those would move mostly towards the NNE or NE later in the day. The entire area though would be slowly progressing towards the east. Where the storms may be stronger would be in NW MO and NE KS…closer to the original area of development.

At this point here is what the SPC is thinking…

 

I agree with the enhanced area farther west…in reality we’ll see how much/strong the storms will be hours after the initial development.

At this point Sunday overall (daytime hours) look to be better than Saturday.

We’ll cool off significantly early next week…lots of 60s for highs…and FWIW the EURO us really cool on WED with a rainy day. As a matter of fact it’s forecasting a high of only 50° next WED…the nights will be pleasant and coolish as well so after needing the AC this weekend because of the humidity + warmth…another multi-day break is coming next week. More great grass growing weather which is either a good or bad thing depending on your preferences for yard mowing.

As you know I’ve had quite the downs with my grass at the house…but I can say that when I was mowing on Tuesday…it probably looks as good now as it has in many years…now just to nurse it through the summer months.

Have a great day and another blog update will come tomorrow afternoon

Joe

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