Joe’s Weather Blog: More Storms On Saturday (FRI-5/15)

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It’s almost as if Mother Nature is taking care of all the sprinkler needs again as a band of occasionally heavy thunderstorms moved through the area at lunch today. There were some gusty winds and perhaps even a brief funnel cloud near Belton (see the discussion).

Forecast:

Tonight: I can’t rule out some scattered activity overnight, but the chances of anything widespread seem small at this point. It will be warm and muggy for sure with temperatures well into the 60s

Tomorrow: There will be several chances for rain during the day tomorrow…right now there seems to be a better chance from 11AM-3PM or so. This will be connected to another wave that will come out of the southern Plains. That rain through hasn’t even formed yet…it should develop early tomorrow and move up the I-35 corridor. Where exactly it forms will play a rather significant role in our weather tomorrow afternoon. Highs should reach 80° or so and it will be muggy. Depending on the timing of the rain tomorrow…temperatures could be only in the 70s.

Sunday: This looks to be the drier of the weekend days as all the focusing mechanisms for thunderstorm potential will be waning. There will be a weak dry line (marked by a small reduction in dewpoints) moving through the afternoon. Right now conditions don’t appear favorable for it to ignite additional storms. It’s something to watch however just in case.

Discussion:

An interesting picture was sent in via FB from the Belton area with the storms moving through around 1PM or so…take a look at this picture.

 

Picture via Jackie Sullivan Downing.

With a stationary picture it’s always tough to precisely say what that was…but looking at radar there did seem to be a small somewhat broad area of rotation near the Belton area towards SW JACO. It was gone in the next couple of scans…so again tough to say for sure…there were numerous reports of 40 MPH winds with the storms to begin with.

So this lunch time round of storms has moved away and behind the rain is a lot of thick humidity…and a lingering chance overnight of some additional isolated pop-ups it appears…it wouldn’t take much to get something going on a somewhat isolated basis.

Tomorrow is sort of a can of worms forecast. There are so many things going on outdoors tomorrow between graduations and said parties, Royals…Sporting KC and various other festivities…and unfortunately the weather may mess up some, not all, of those outdoor events.

Rain chances are certainly there tomorrow especially in the later morning into the afternoon hours. How much coverage we get though remains to be seen and while the chances of rain are there…it’s not worth cancelling all your outdoor plans at this point in time. We’ll just have to watch radar.

The severe weather risk tomorrow doesn’t look that strong. There always could be a storm or two that generate 60 MPH winds and maybe some hail to be borderline severe…but we’re just not set-up at this point for anything widespread. The highest risk, as we’ve talked about for the last few days is well west of KC.

 

What develops out there will move NEwards while the entire area slowly moves east. By the time it gets to us it should be considerably weakened however as it approaches our area…the winds above the surface will be in the 45-55+ MPH area. Should any convection move into that wind field…it wouldn’t take much for us to see some 60 MPH winds develop with those storms…so it’s something to be alert for just in case…the timing on that potential would be towards 12AM or so early on Sunday it appears.

So really the two BEST windows for rain (and remember we’re talking about rain that doesn’t exist in any shape or form now…nor will it for hours to come) seem to be around noon Saturday for a few hours and then later tomorrow evening into early Sunday.

As far as Sunday goes…it appears to be dry at this point after whatever moves through overnight is out of the area…temperatures should be warmer than tomorrow. There also seems to be a weak cap developing Sunday as well. Highs may be closer to 85° though.

There has been about a 12 hour slowdown it appears in the progress of the cooler air for early next week. This results in the cooler air coming in during the day on Monday, which should be about 15° cooler than Sunday. It also means the potential of storms developing nearby sometime later Monday morning…odds favor SE of the metro…but let’s see if things slow down another 6 hours…that would then allow the front to really come through closer to noon and that would then mean an increased chance of rain again on Monday in the KC area…

More rain is likely next WED and then again heading towards next weekend. At this point no severe weather is likely next week until potentially next weekend when yet another system (like all the previous ones) moves through the SW into the western Plains…so another severe weather set-up will present itself out west it appears later next week

Out of all this though it continues to be apparent that we won’t be dragging the sprinklers around anytime soon as rain chances will be coming our way every few days it appears.

Have a great day and keep those umbrellas around for tomorrow just in case. Hopefully things will come into better focus overnight so that when I see you at 7AM tomorrow everything will fall into place in terms of the timing of the rain.

Joe

 

 

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