Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat Break Coming (THU-6/25)

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Good afternoon…another seasonably hot weather day out there with temperatures into the 90s and heat indices near to above 100°. Not a lot of clouds out there right now…but that should change overnight into tomorrow as cooler air works in and at least overnight our storm chances increase.

Forecast:

Tonight: Thunderstorms are increasingly likely with the potential of locally heavy rain. As with many convective scenarios during this time of the year…the modelling on on things will lay out is pretty worthless. It appears that a cap in place will subdue convection chances for the rest of the afternoon and into at least early this evening in the KC area. Storm chances will be higher in N MO and NE KS. From there the storms should push out various outflows…and create new convection closer to and likely around the KC area.  So we may have a couple of lines of storms move through the region overnight…timing is roughly from 8PM onwards in terms of the chances increasing. Temperatures tonight should stay in the 70s.

Tomorrow: Clouds with rain chances in the AM…then variable clouds in the PM hours. Highs tomorrow should struggle to 80° so it certainly will be cooler tomorrow compared to today. Dewpoints should trail off, especially in the afternoon hours…so it should be more pleasant.

Saturday: Nice looking day with drier air and seasonable temperatures and highs between 80-85°.

Sunday: As we establish NW flow…another cold front will be moving into the region during the day. We should heat up well into the 80s ahead of the front…storm chances are there on Sunday…especially from KC eastwards. It may not be a perfectly dry weekend…but then we haven’t had one of those area wide in months

Discussion:

And so we wait…a cold front is just north of the I-70 corridor. Temperatures are into the 90s…dewpoints are into the 70s…the atmosphere is unstable…so we wait. The satellite picture at 2PM isn’t exactly screaming convection for the next several hours as clouds are having some big issues 1) forming and 2) extending vertically.

 

The front itself is poised just to our north…

sfc

We have two issues right now preventing convection from blowing up for the next few hours at least. 1) we are still capped and 2) there is not a lot of convergence along the front. The short range models (which love generating convection) are having a field day right now doing that exact thing. many of them show storms blowing up within the next 1-3 hours…tough to get storms when there are no real vertical clouds clouds out there. What should happen is that the front will slowly push southwards overnight. As this occurs there should be at least some weakening of the cap in place…but this process may take some time. It’s actually an interesting set-up because you’ll be able to tell when the cap is breaking yourself by just looking at the clouds. You’ll see them developing more vertically and lasting longer. When that occurs you’ll know the cap is breaking. From there storms should have an easier time getting their act together overnight into tomorrow AM.

There is a lot of surface moisture (high dewpoints) and also moisture throughout the lower 20,000 feet of the atmosphere. This means that the storms should be efficient rain producers for whoever gets them…and with the saturated soils out there, especially on the north side of the metro…some flooding is possible.

A flash flood watch is in effect overnight tonight.

 

There is also a risk of some severe storms..with winds and hail being the primary threats with any storms that really get their act together.

Here is the radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

 

As of this writing some storms are trickling into far N MO…while they are moving eastwards…they may push some cooler air (outflow) out of them to help slowly push the front farther south overnight.

Tomorrow the higher chances are during the 1st part of the day…during the afternoon it should be more pleasant.

That’s it for today…another update is possible before 4:30 if the cap weakens…we’ll see.

Joe

 

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