Joe’s Weather Blog: More dry time than not (SAT-6/27)

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Good afternoon…just a wonderful summertime day out there….temperatures will max out between 80-85° and the humidity/dewpoints are very bearable for the region for late June. Get outside and enjoy it…the evening looks fabulous as well. There may be a few isolated showers out there but the vast majority of us will be dry through tomorrow PM.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and very pleasant with lows near 65°

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warmer. Nothing to extreme really just seasonable. There may be some storms that attempt to fire up in the afternoon…however the coverage may not be that widespread. Dewpoints will creep up but still be OK for late June standards. Highs tomorrow between 85-89°

Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs well into the 80s.

Discussion:

Some beautiful sky conditions out there today…as drier air at the surface has moved into the area, Dewpoints are near 60° this afternoon which is a nice break from the thick humidity of recent days (dewpoints 70°+). The latest satellite picture from the afternoon shows a large field of cumulus cloud development through the Plains region.

 

The sounding this morning showed that the temperatures would get into the lower 80s or so before the clouds would really get going…and that’s what’s in the process of occurring. It wouldn’t be shocking if there are some local updrafts that generate some isolated showers before the afternoon is done, perhaps favoring the MO side more than areas west of the state line.

These clouds will dissolve as the sun fades and the temperatures cool. They are being generated by the afternoon heating…so once that leaves, so will the clouds.

The next item I’m watching for the Sunday PM forecast is the progress of a cold front now moving into the N Plains region. This front will be coming into the I-70 corridor later tomorrow afternoon. We should be warmer tomorrow but I’m starting to question the instability that will be out there at the time of the front’s arrival. Dewpoints may only be around 65°…it should be enough to generate at least some scattered storms…but how widespread the activity is is questionable. the timing would be roughly from 4-8PM or so…and whatever were to develop would be moving towards the SE at a pretty good clip. There is a chance that the storms may be able to generate some 1″ hail and/or 60 MPH wind gusts. So there is a chance of some severe weather…especially from KC eastwards tomorrow afternoon

Then we’re sort of back to another seasonable day on Monday…with highs in the mid 80s or so.

The upcoming week overall will be mostly dry in the area. There will be some rain though in there. We’re are now into NW flow which means we have to be alert for transient disturbances that will be rather difficult to time out. The models typically are too slow with this fast pockets of jetstream winds.

As we go up to about 18,000′ or so…we find that there is a large anti-cyclone (opposite of a storm) in the northwestern part of the country. This is bringing record heat to parts of the Pacific NW. Towards the east of KC there is a trough (a pronounced dip on the map below) that signifies cooler air coming southwards…

500

In between we need to watch for thunderstorm genesis and where they develop. Weak pacific waves will move from Canada into the N Plains and western Rockies. Then drop towards the SE. The red oval represents the zone to watch.. There are signs that one of these may effect our region on WED then perhaps on Friday…but WED>FRI will be watched for the development of these waves…that could then make storms/rain drop closer to the KC area. The location of the development will play a huge role in where the storms end up dropping towards. Again that’s a day be day type thing.

This may play havoc with the temperatures as well…clouds/rain will do that (see yesterday). we’ll be on the edge of the heat for most of the week…before the anticyclone out west moves farther westwards towards the holiday weekend. This will allow a dip in the jetstream which this weekend is off towards the east of the region to become more centered towards the middle part of the country. This means some rather pleasantly cooler weather to move into the Plains…at least for FRI>SAT of next week it appears….details will be figured out as the week moves along…but we may be setting up for some nice holiday weather around these parts.

So at this point…we’re on the watch for some storms tomorrow…then again from WED>FRI…overall though many will be drying out into Wednesday. This is the 2nd wettest 5/1-6/27 time period (through today) in KC weather history. We only have 3 more days in the month left…and should we not add to the rain total…it will end up being the 3rd wettest May and June in KC weather history. Let’s see what tomorrow brings…it will be a big factor in the overall finish to a very wet 2 months around these parts. Some have had well over 35″ of rainfall in the last 2 months!

Capture

 

 

 

 

That’s it for today…get outside of you can!

Joe

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