Stay weather aware: Snow expected overnight

Joe’s Weather Blog: Check that sump pump…here we go again (MON-7/6)

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Good morning…this blog will basically be a recap and update of yesterday’s blog…since my forecast thoughts are about the same…concern is there for locally heavy rainfall later today into the overnight hours. Flooding, which has been problematic this spring/early summer may well be an issue again this evening and overnight.

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and steamy. Highs between 85-90° with heat index values into the 90s. Windy with south winds of 15-25 MPH bringing up a lot of moisture. Storm chances increase this afternoon but especially during the evening. The rain will arrive/form earlier in NW MO (after lunch) and slowly increase towards the KC metro area (after 6PM). This may well impact the Royals game tonight.

Tonight: Rain and storms continue into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Amounts may be in excess of 1-3+” in spots (the highest amounts perhaps not widespread but still noteworthy). Lows drop into the lower 60s behind the front)

Tomorrow: Actually this may be a decent day. There could be a lingering lighter shower around in the AM…but overall a mix of clouds and some sun. Cool for early July with highs in the 70s.

Tuesday night: Another round of rain/storms possible…if it’s heavy enough we may easily have flooding concerns again (depending on how tonight plays out). Highs Wednesday may struggle again in the mid 70s and it’s not out of he question that we’re in the 60s all day.

Discussion:

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the region through Wednesday evening. This watch starts this evening. Unfortunately, as I’ve written about extensively, we are setting up for heavy rainfall. A VERY moist atmosphere (at the surface and aloft) combined with a relatively slow moving frontal zone should combine to create strong storms later today with very heavy rainfall.

There is also a risk of some severe weather (mainly gusty winds and perhaps some hail). The main threat though would be flooding. We’ve seen numerous fronts move into these moist environments produce excessive rainfall over the last few months…and tonight may be no exception.

Here is the latest surface map showing the front to the north of the KC area…notice the temperatures in RED.

sfc

That’s some cool air behind the front that will be moving into the region overnight.

Obviously it’s a volatile mix of moisture and lift (the front). The latest HRRR model shows the evolution of the rain. It may come in waves, and I don’t think all will be affected by the heaviest rainfall. So it goes with thunderstorms. the following model is courtesy of WeatherBell. This is just a model.

 

Meanwhile there is rain ongoing now to the immediate north of the KC area…this is reality

 

I’ll also insert the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill, MO…as I write this it’s quiet now…but that won’t last through the day.

 

Rain total verifications are always a VERY localized thing…one subdivision will have 3″ another <1/2 mile away will have less than 1″ sometimes…so it may go later today and tonight in the region. The ingredients are there…it will me a matter of watching radar and seeing who gets the biggest storms. Here is the NWS forecast through later Wednesday. 2-2.5″ of those totals in the KC metro area are from what happens later today and tonight. The rain should slowly taper in the wee hours of tomorrow. The graphic below is via WeatherBell

 

We’ll talk about the set-up for Tuesday night into Wednesday in tomorrow’s blog. More significant rain is possible in that time frame, especially from KC southwards.

Here is the risk of severe storms…

 

 

This rain by the way, may well impact the Royals game tonight. Should that game get rained out, or they start and then have to postpone it, and with the number of off days in the 2nd part of the season dwindling quickly…don’t be surprised if they end up playing some sort of day/night game on Thursday since this is the only time Tampa Bay comes to town this year.

I continue to expect a hot weekend with nasty humidity. Be prepared for that.

Joe

 

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