Joe’s Weather Blog: Consider this a small break (SAT-7/25)

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Good afternoon…as I expected this morning temperatures are not as extreme as yesterday although the dew points are starting to creep back up. You may have noticed some gusty winds earlier this morning. This was outflow from the rain/storms in central MO. It briefly dropped the dew points back into the more tolerable upper 60s…but not that outflow has faded and we’re back to around a 75° dew point which is extremely muggy.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Monitoring trends in central KS as storms continue out there. Higher rain chances will be again north of KC  however I’m concerned that between the various outflows in the area, new storms could fire later today. Rain chances for the KC metro area are around 20% with higher chances north of 36 highway towards the IA border region. HIghs today will be in the lower 90s.

Tonight: If there are any storms in the area, they’ll quickly fade. warm and muggy with lows back to around 75°

Tomorrow: Storm chances again in the AM hours…but mostly dry hot and humid with highs back to around 95°. Heat indices will again be close to or above 105°

Discussion:

At 1PM KCI is reporting 86° with a 76° dew point. Downtown is 90° with a 77° dew point. Heat index values are 96°/103°. So we’re again heading up. At KCI at least, it’s a whooping 3° “cooler and 4° less “dewy” ( I made that word up). It’s not a huge break but it’s something.

My concern is that tomorrow, but especially Monday>Tuesday that break will be over.

Meanwhile clouds are an issue in N MO where temperatures are running about 5°-10° cooler than the KC area.

If you look very closely at the satellite picture early this afternoon, you can almost see ripples in the clouds. These are called gravity waves. They’re basically waves of lift/motion in the atmosphere that are created by clusters of thunderstorms. Much like what happens is in still lake when you throw a stone into it, these little waves are rippling away from storms in northern KS.

 

They’re not uncommon actually and they can change the weather in a way by keeping temperatures from reaching their full potential. This is what I anticipated yesterday and it may happen again tomorrow, especially in the AM hours.

As the sunshine in the area now makes things more and more unstable in the late afternoon hours + should there be any disturbance in the atmosphere move our way from N KS, storms closer to KC could develop. It’s not the greatest set-up today but it’s a possibility. The timing on this would be after 4PM or so through about 9PM tonight. Odds continue to favor areas from 36 highway northwards in to NE KS and N MO…but a few cloud develop closer to home. Something that I’ll be watching.

Tomorrow AM will present another opportunity for storms closer to the I-70 corridor. Storms overnight tonight in N MO may throw down some outflows that move into the KC area. Additional storms could fire along these outflows before lunch tomorrow then fade afterwards. In some ways tomorrow may be a repeat of today with highs 90-95° and dew points again well into the 70s in the afternoon. Heat indices will be near 105° again.

Monday and Tuesday may be even hotter by a few more degrees although the dew points may be more in the 71-76° range as opposed to the 80°+ range from yesterday. Regardless the bottom line is still plenty of heat and humidity on tap for the area through Tuesday.

We should get at least a break in the extreme heat on Wednesday as a cold front will drift through the area. We should get some rain from that and we will see at least a 2 day reduction in the temperatures. Nothing overly cool, but highs on WED>THU may be in the 80s (hopefully we’ll have more clouds in the region on WED at least).

We’re coming to the hottest time of the year on average in the KC area. From the 15th through the 30s the averages are 89°/69°. Meanwhile nationwide here is the time frame for the hottest day of the season.

 

Interesting to note that the hottest time of the year has now passed in the SW part of the country. This is because of the monsoonal flow that usually establishes itself creating higher dew points and as a result, somewhat lower temperatures. For us, typically we have to wait till late July into mid August for the soils to bake out from the spring rainfall. This allows the dew points to drop (in most years) and allows the temperatures to increase somewhat as the rainfall patterns become more erratic in the Plains and southern Plains

Today is also an Ozone Alert Day, however because of the outflow from the morning storms north and east of KC…it appears that may not verify…at least you’ll save some money on the bus fares today. Yesterday we got to the top limit of the moderate category…and IF we didn’t have that outflow this morning…odds are we would’ve tripped into the “unhealthy for sensitive people” category today. Again though it does not appear that will happen based on how we’re doing so far today.

Capture

 

Speaking of the heat…

By the way, yesterday I talked about how the heat is really the biggest weather killer on average and not tornadoes. Another small child died (the 11th) because he/she was locked in a car in the heat. This is so preventable.

Use some common sense over the next few days…and be alert for others with the heat and humidity in place.

Joe

 

 

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