Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat breaks tomorrow! (TUE-7/28)

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Excessive Heat Warning until 9 p.m.

Good morning…my forecast thoughts from this past weekend are playing out rather well. We did get a somewhat unexpected “break” from the more intense heat yesterday thanks to an abundance of clouds (we were still in the 90s though) and today with more sunshine and wind…we should easily be in the 92-97° range with dew points into the 70s again…this will send the heat index above 105°. Stay hydrated and use common sense if you plan on being outside. In reality this weather is typical (average) for late July. The issue, because of all the rain has been the humidity.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies and hot/humid with highs well into the 90s and heat index values near 105°+. An Excessive Heat Warning is in place for the afternoon hours.

Tonight: A cold front will work through the region into tomorrow morning. The higher chances of storms this evening are in NE KS and N MO…which will work there way southwards overnight and potentially weaken some. Not all will get the rain however. Temperatures should eventually drop into the 60s>70° tomorrow AM.

Wednesday: Perhaps some morning showers scattered about, especially from KC southwards…then some clearing. Not as hot or as humid but still warm it appears with highs into the 80s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs near 90°. Humidity levels will be tolerable so the heat index won’t be that big of a factor.

Discussion:

Not a lot to really write about this morning, that I didn’t cover in the last weather blog. Here’s something interesting…did you know it snowed yesterday on top of some of the mountains in MT. As a matter of fact temperatures this morning are near 30° or in the 30s in E ID and NW WY. Yellowstone Lake, WY is at 30° as I type this.

 

 

 

Pretty chilly but really not shocking for that part of the country. The colder air has turned into cooler air that is moving into the western Plains this morning. The leading edge is a cold front which shows up nicely on the morning surface weather map. Temperatures are in RED and the dew points…check those out behind the front, are in green. Click onthe map to make it more readable.

sfc

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously ahead of the front, south winds will continue to keep us in the heat today.

There is a thunderstorm complex along the I-80 corridor to the north of the KC area…it will stay there this morning. Some clouds are  possible in N MO before lunch from it however.

The cold front though is our next change in the weather and that will move in overnight tonight. I’m impressed by the dew point drop behind the front and I’m encouraged that tomorrow, while still warm, will “feel” much more bearable for late July.

There is a pretty decent storm traversing the US/Canada border region today. There was a pretty decent outbreak of severe weather in Canada yesterday including tornadoes…this is there severe weather season.

The “relief” will last a couple of days but I think we’ll start getting more and more humid again heading into the weekend. We will also be in NW flow aloft over the weekend. At this point there are no disturbances showing up in that flow of significance but NW flows are notorious for “surprise” showers/storms…and some suggestion of moisture return (not to the extent of the high dew points in place these last few days), something isolated to scattered is not out of the question.

Overall though after tomorrow morning, the forecast is actually more dry than not…and yes assuming you miss out on the rain overnight/WED AM…it may be time to fire up those sprinklers for a bit of time.

Joe

 

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