Joe’s Weather Blog: All downhill beginning Friday (THU-7/30)

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Boy hard to imagine the kids will be going back to school in a few weeks…summer is quickly moving along, and for now at least, we’re enjoying a nice little break in the 1) intense heat and 2) the swamp-like humidity. Temperatures today are seasonable and the humidity levels are actually, in many areas. below average for late July, especially from Downtown KC southwards.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant again with lows dropping into the 60s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs near 90°. Light winds.

Saturday: Scattered storms are possible but aside from that skies will be partly cloudy. Because of the potential of clouds around…highs may only be 85-90°.

Sunday: Assuming we have more sunshine…temperatures should be hotter with highs 90-95°. Dew points won’t be extreme like they have been recently…so the heat index will be closer to 100-105° or so

Discussion:

Well when you factor in the rounding that goes no in the weather world…i.e. a set of numbers that average out to 88.5° and it’s rounded up to 89°…beginning tomorrow the average low temperatures start a slow decline…and as a result the average overall for KC temperatures follow suit. This decline continues into the 3rd week of January…so as the title of the blog says…it’s all downhill from here. For some that’s a good thing…for others its depressing. It is what it is when it comes to the weather world though…

On that subject, we’ve also technically past the days when the high temperature of 90° or higher are most likely. In data going back to the late 1880s…July 27th and 28th represent the 2 days where highs of 90°+ are most likely (71 times each). July 26 (70 times) and August 3rd (69 times). So on that note…it’s all down hill. Interesting enough though while that may be the case, August, on average, only has 1 less 90° day than July does (14 vs 13). Overall though we average 41 days with highs 90° or above. So far this year we’ve been 90° or above 18 times…average through July is 22 times…so we still have work to do. My feeling though,a s I wrote a few weeks ago, is that we won’t get there.

With that said there are several more warm days coming over the next 10 days or so. By the same token there may be some cooler days on tap for the end of next week as well. So we continue to have a tough time locking into any one type of weather regime. When things start to dry out a bit, we get some rain. When it gets real hot and humid for a few days we get a break. Overall the summer will probably be remembered as being 1) humid and 2) sort of wet enough so that the sprinklers weren’t needed that much.

As far as the forecast goes…we will gradually be evolving into NW flow aloft. As written about over the past few days…disturbances can come down through the N Rockies and impact the Plains in these types of scenarios. Forecasting the location of these small waves is nearly impossible from several days out because they don’t even exist at this point. With that said however, we can see some indications that at least we’ll be vulnerable for these types of things.

The track of the disturbances, that don’t exist at this point, will go a long ways in determining whether or not we have some rain in the region on Saturday and even for that matter on Sunday as well.

We should warm up early next week…Monday in particular looks rather steamy…but then we should see some sort of realignment of the pattern later next week. Exactly how much cool air filters our way is a bit of a question but there are some increasingly strong indications that highs should be trending downwards and below seasonal averages starting Thursday of next week. We should get some rain, as well, in this transition. So once again, as we try and heat up again, we cool down…and as we start to need rain again, it may rain.

That’s it for today…have a great Thursday and I’ll get another update out tomorrow afternoon. Also a reminder that you can follow me on twitter (@fox4wx) if you aren’t already.

Joe

 

 

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