Joe’s Weather Blog: Front watching + storm chances (SUN-8/2)

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Good afternoon and thanks for taking a few minutes and reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. All is quiet in the area as I write this and odds favor it to stay that way through the afternoon. Temperatures are seasonable with readings now well into the 80s and heat index values into the 90s.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and muggy with lows in the 70s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds and hot and humid. Cooler conditions in northern MO but closer to the metro temperatures will again be around 90°. Some sort of weak front may drop near KC during the day…this may allow dew points to “pool” or get thicker near the KC area. So it may feel more uncomfortable tomorrow. Also there won’t be a lot of wind to stir things up. Storm chances are there tomorrow…in the AM up north and then in the PM from KC southwards depending on the location of the front.

Tuesday: Thunderstorms will be in the area off and on during the day. This will make temperatures tricky. I can see highs as cool as the lower 80s with enough storms…or I could see highs well into the 80s with storms that are fewer and farther apart. Clouds obviously will play a role in how things play out on Tuesday.

Discussion:

I have a feeling that the work week forecast is going to get tougher and tougher as the week moves along. Outflows and fronts will be teasing the region and with the heat and humidity in place…storm chances will be around the region.

This afternoon a cold front is located in the upper Midwest. Click on the graphic below to make it larger.

sfc

How far south this front gets is actually a bit of a question today. The high pressure area in the northern Plains helping to push the front southwards is very weak…so there isn’t a lot of push to the front itself. It may rely more on various areas of storms developing and generating various outflows (rain cooled areas of air) to help push the front farther south.

This complicates the forecast tomorrow…IF the front stays to our north and never makes it into the KC metro…we’ll be right back into the 90s in KC. Should that occur, where ever the ends up, it would then be vulnerable to renewed storms developing in the heat of the day. There will be a weak cap in the area to complicate the potential of storms as well. I can be overcome with enough heating and moisture however I feel. So at least the chance of storms is warranted I feel. Then there will be the instability factor…it certainly will be there so that any storms that do develop will have the potential of creating some strong gusty winds. The SPC has placed our area under a “marginal” chance of severe storms tomorrow.

Then TUE>WED have additional potential for storms…especially Tuesday. There will be a modicum of a low level jet developing in the Plains that could, should there be a stalled front south of the area, allow storms to fire up. The jet really doesn’t come into play until later Tuesday int Wednesday AM. So this in the end will complicate the high temperature forecast on Tuesday

Actually the whole week will have the region more or less. on the edge of some nasty summer heat. At this point it appears that the real hot stuff will stay well south of the region. So it’s a set-up for storms and where exactly those storms go will be figured out as the days go by. Should the hottest temperatures reside more towards OK and N TX…it’s possible that the bigger storms may be farther south of KC through Thursday. Again it’s just too tough to pinpoint at this time.

My feeling is that this is going to be a tough week overall to forecast temperatures…

Joe

 

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