Joe’s Weather Blog: Labor Day chances? (THU-9/3)

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Good afternoon…aside from the showers yesterday that were more noteworthy north and west of the I-35 corridor…things have been pretty mundane in the weather world around the KC area lately, and really it’s not going to change through Sunday…basically 90-93° days till then…Monday however there may be some changes in the form of rain chances…

Forecast:

Today through Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs near 90° and lows at night in the 70s.

Monday: Storm chances start increasing later Sunday night into Monday. Odds are Monday (Labor Day) will not be as hot.

Discussion:

Sorry for the lack of blogging but I really didn’t have much to write about in this rather mundane weather scenario that we’re set up in right now. Today will be the 4th straight day with highs of at least 90°…strangely that has only happened once so far this summer…back on 7/11-14.  We also had dew points above 80° in there as well…it was nasty…with heat index values near 115°. The good news about this run of 90+° weather…the dew points are closer to 70°…so yes it’s muggy but really it’s just typical I guess for early-mid August.

This “type” of weather will continue through most of the weekend…however by Sunday I’ll be watching a cold front slicking through the western Plains…

sfc

The map above is from the NAM model…valid for 1PM Sunday afternoon…front is still wayyyy to the west of the region

The front will move towards the KC area overnight Sunday and into Monday…with it in the area the rain chances will be increasing on Labor Day…and obviously clouds will follow along as well…so the “less nice” part of the holiday weekend appears to be Monday.

The main issue appears to be how far south will the front get into the area on Monday which then would connect to how widespread is the rain on Monday. Model data shows the front anywhere from the near the KC area to the I-44 corridor…it’s not certain where the eventual landing area will be for the front, and the amount of rain/storms connected to the front may help/hurt the southern landing point of the front. Regardless of where the front ends up, it appears that the cold front will stop and slowly retreat farther north on TUE before a stronger front with a more dramatic potential temperature shift moves through the area before the end of next week. Or something along those lines…the bottom line is that the summer heat will be breaking next week…how exactly that plays out though remains to be seen

The potential for some decent rain totals is there will all this going on (MON>WED) and then later in the week as well with the stronger front moving through. So basically it might be a good time to get some fertilizer down on the ground before Monday and hopefully Mother Nature will do the job of watering it in for you.

So there is some good news with all this…likewise if maybe you wanted to start doing a little over-seeding as well over the weekend…hopefully it will keep your sprinkler use a little lower for about 7 days although certainly you will have to water next week.

That’s it for now…I’ll get another blog together tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

 

 

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