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Goodbye summer…hello sort of fall (TUE-9/22)

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Good afternoon…pleasant weather out there today with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will end up in the 80s this afternoon and that’s going to be common territory for us for quite some time. There will be occasional cold fronts through the 1st 10+ days of October…but overall the trends are for warmer than average temperatures and drier than average conditions for the foreseeable future.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and mild with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies and warm with highs in the 80-85° range

Thursday: Variable clouds and mild again with highs near 80°

Discussion:

Today is the last day of summer in KC. We’ve certainly seen milder than average temperatures for the month as a whole (almost 4°) above average in September) and it’s really not going to change too much from now through early October.

The autumnal equinox starts early Wednesday morning. Overall it seems many are going to remember the summer of 2015 for it’s more mild nature and also for all the amounts of rain we’ve seen. Things did at times dry out but for many there was always some timely rains that fell. For some the summer overall was pretty wet (especially in N MO).

For us to get some great fall colors…we need bright sunny days and cool crisp nights…we have had a few of those so far…and it appears that we’re going to be hurting a bit on the cool crisp night standpoint at least for a little while. Dew points as I type this are well into the 60s and with the winds forecasted to be from the south for awhile, that won’t change too much over the next few days although there will be some subtle differences in the surface pattern into the end of the week.

The 12PM surface map today shows some of the highest dew points in the Plains right along the KS/MO state line area.

SFC

There is a cold front north of the area…this front will sort of wash out over the next few days. So it really won’t influence our weather all that much.

Something sort of interesting however is a stronger area of high pressure building up through southern Canada. This is going to migrate into SE Canada into the weekend and may allow the surface winds here to shift more towards the SE or even ESE. This could allow some drier air to move westwards from E MO where the dew points are lower, and shove the thickest air (dew point wise) up to the north of the area. So the net effect of all this is the potential for dew points to gradually drop off over the next 4 days or so, allowing the overnight lows to come down a few degrees later in the week.

Overall it’s a nice weather set-up through the weekend it appears.

Our next, more significant cold front is due in sometime early next week potentially at least according to the GFS model. There though is quite a bit of difference in the strength of this potential shot of cool air between the latest GFS forecast and the EURO model from last night which basically is a dry warm run for the foreseeable future (into early October) with maybe an average day mixed in every so often..

The forecast may not be totally dry, I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if a shower or two drifted into the area before the week is done but odds are the rain we saw at the end of last week is probably the last “big” rain that will occur around these parts for quite some time.

Here are some of the longer range temperature trend forecasts…1st the 8-14 day out look…

 

and the experimental probability forecast for temperatures through mid October.

 

Now that DOESN’T mean that the temperatures for the entire next 3+ weeks or so will be warmer than average every single day. There will be cooler days mixed in there. It does mean that the overall average will be warmer than average though.

That’s it for today…if you planted grass seed a couple of weeks ago…get ready to use the sprinkler…a lot.

Joe

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2 comments

    • Joe Lauria

      According to the data from the 1st thru the 21st we have an avg temperature at 74°. That’s the 27th warmest 1st 21 days (if you factor in all the ties). IF we end up at 74° at the end of the month then yes it will be the 9th warmest. Check my stats to make sure I’m right. JL