Joe’s Weather Blog: Last day for the A/C’s? (MON-9/28)

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Good morning…quite the celestial show last night in the area as the total lunar eclipse combined with the supermoon set the stage for pretty picture taking. See our facebook page for more great photos. I may try and show a few more this evening since I’m filling in for Mike. My guess is that with the Chiefs and the Royals playing though, odds are you won’t be watching the late newscasts though…I get it and let me alert you know (like I have been over the weekend) that some rather significant changes are happening to the weather and the weather pattern as summer sort of ends today (finally) and fall really starts to kick into gear around these parts.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies, warm and pleasant with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the area. Light winds

Tonight: Mild and pleasant with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow (Updated at noon):Whatever warm-up we get will have to come in the AM hours. We could conceivably warm to near 70-75° on the north side and near 80° on the south side before cooler air, thanks to a cold front moves into the area in the afternoon. Temperatures in the afternoon may be steady or falling in the 60s with a decent NE wind kicking in. Highest rain chances are across northern MO it appears but some shower activity is not out of the question in the KC metro area though the amounts don’t look to be heavy at all. The mid-day models are running a few hours later with the cold front arrival allowing temperatures to warm up a few more degrees during the 1st part of the day.

Wednesday: Variable clouds and cool with highs around 70°

Discussion:

Last week I wasn’t thinking that we’d see a rather abrupt end to the warmth in this part of the country…I was thinking that while we’d see some fronts come through returning us to seasonable conditions, we’d attempt to warm-up afterwards so that the end result was above average temperatures to start the month of October. That does not appear to be in the cards as a new pattern will be emerging (it’s called fall) and cooler temperatures will be more prevalent for awhile it appears.

I’m not expecting any frosts at this point however, but some much cooler nights are in the cards as well depending on the cloud cover situation which won’t be resolved for awhile. Overall the maps are screaming fall. One note…with the seasonal differences 3-5 months later, the maps would also be screaming snow and/or ice to for significant real estate in the Plains states.

First things first though and that is our cold front. Click on the image below to make it more readable.

sfc

 

The front itself is not really all that strong at this point. I’m expecting rain to develop in the Plains states today>tomorrow AM and that rain falling north of the KC area will help to cool down the air up there and sort of reinforce the front and allow the temperature gradient to strength as the front moves through the area tomorrow.

The winds will shift towards the north but the cooler air will be somewhat delayed in moving through. So we could see a rise in temperatures tomorrow AM briefly before the cooler air flows southwards. Areas farther south of KC actually could warm up a bit more than us in the KC area, while areas up north will be cooler throughout the day. The overnight run of the hi-res NAM model shows temperatures in the afternoon in the near 65° range and it’s very possible it’s right with clouds thinning and showers fading

hires_t2m_kc_40

 

So whatever brief warming we get before lunch will be reversed in the later morning hours and afternoon in KC.

This cooler air mass will just sort of stay with us for about a week or so.

At the same time, disturbances will be moving from the west to towards the east in a very split flow aloft. There is a combination of several things going on in the map below which is valid Friday evening. The main jet is displaced way up into Canada.

A secondary jet stream though is circulating through the country. Various upper level storms have formed. So what happens is that the cool air that flows into the area this week, can’t really modify. With the upper lows waddling around rain is created which then enhances the cooler air mass through the USA. So temperatures overall are on the cool side. Since there is no real connection to the air in Canada, this future chill is more or less manufactured in the USA.

jet

That disturbance in the Rockies has to produce rain in the Plains at some point. Right now the target might be on Saturday in the KC area. Model data is also showing the potential for temperatures (if this does come to fruition) to be only in the 50s with rain falling. This would be VERY possible and not shockingly timed out for the American Royal BBQ events this coming weekend.

Here is a look at the next 10+ days for KC according to the GFS ensembles…these are the forecasted temperatures.

KMCI_2015092800_nx_15

You can see some recovery starting next week

Again these “USA manufactured” air masses tend to stick around for awhile. Take a look at the forecasted anomalies for later this week into next Monday.

 

The blues and purples are the coldest temperatures (relative to averages) while the reds are warmest relative to averages.

The above images are via WeatherBell

So our 19th warmest September (through the 27th) is going to be replaced by a stretch of near to below average temperatures heading into the 1st week of October.

That’s ot for today. I’ll see you tonight since I’m filling in for MT.

Joe

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