Joe’s Weather Blog: ALDS forecast concerns (WED-10/7)

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Well it’s a beautiful morning out there with some fog in spots. Visibility is near 1/2 mile in spots. This should quickly burn off as the morning goes along and overall a nice Wednesday is on tap. as a matter of fact the forecast overall (aside from some up and down temperatures) is pretty clear cut with one exception and that would be the ball game tomorrow evening (it figures).

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and milder with highs in the upper 70s

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant with lows closer to 60°

Tomorrow: Warmer and slightly more humid. A cold front will move through during the evening hours. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 80s. The record tomorrow is 91° but we should fall well short of that. The rain chances are trickier but seem most likely tomorrow evening into early Friday morning. I can’t promise perfectly dry weather for the game so be advised to have rain gear ready.

Friday: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs well into the 60s. The weather for the afternoon ALDS (game #2) should be phenomenal with gametime temperatures around 68° or so.

Discussion:

I grew up a Yankees fan (there I said it) and have always followed them. I’ve been bleeding royal Blue however for the past 15 years or so. Growing up though as a Yankee fan was interesting. There were some VERY lean times back in the 60s through the mid 70s or so. I used to have this clock radio where I would listen to all the games on the AM radio as I was falling asleep back in the day. I remember on certain nights slowly working through the AM dial and hearing various games from 100s of miles away when the reception cooperated including games from Chicago and St Louis on the powerful AM stations that were broadcasting in those times.

Anyway I was pulling for the Yankees last night not because I’m much of a Yankees fan anymore (I really don’t recognize about 3/4’s of the team these days)but because in my mind they were going to be an easier team to beat in the ALDS. I talked to a friend in Houston last night during the game…and that team is trouble. They remind me of us last year except with better pitching. It should be a fun ALDS though and when we move on to the ALCS I’m betting we take on Toronto. I noticed that only 1 of the ESPN “experts” are picking the Royals (out of 23). That’s just the way I like it, because those “experts” are rarely right about these things. Of course those “experts” probably grumble about things on my side of the aisle as well and tomorrow night they may grumble a little louder.

A cold front will be the culprit of our storms tomorrow night. Where those storms actually set up though is tough to figure out. The model data shows solutions ranging from nearly no rain whatsoever to heavier storms moving through during the evening and night. There is also a growing indication that the front itself may come through dry but there will be post frontal (behind the front) rain which may develop a few hours behind the front itself.

At this point the window for storms/rain looks to be roughly from 6PM to about 3AM or so. Obviously with the game tomorrow evening falling right into the time frame it’s somewhat concerning.

The hi-res NAM model shows rain developing just after sunset and that rain would be in the area till early Friday morning. The coverage at any one time may not be great however so as you can see by the following graphics…certainly NOT set in stone that we’ll have rain at/during the game.

 

The images above are from the hi-res NAM model (early morning run). The forecasts of the radar presentations are NOT correct. Why am I showing this to you…because it shows a rough outline of timing. There are some things working against the front itself bring storms to the area. 1) would be a lack of converging winds along the front 2) would be not the greatest surface moisture profile and 3) would be not the greatest upper air forcing to get storms going. I wouldn’t be surprised if maybe there was scattered stuff with the front itself (20% chance for any one spot) but it does appear that the better chances of rain (40%+ for any one spot) will be after the frontal passage.

It appears that the tailgating>start of the game will be OK. After that though you can see that convection is developing towards 9/10PM or so. This one run has the storms off towards the east of KC. That part is suspect for precision however. Those storms could be anywhere though. The actual front itself will be passing through the area early in the evening it appears so the convection (most of it) is actually behind the front it appears. Temperatures will be dropping from the 80s at the beginning of the game to the mid 60s by the end of the game so that needs to be considered as well as your planning your evening.

So the bottom line at this point is to be prepared for rain. My confidence in it actually raining during the game itself isn’t overly high at this point. Should the front speed up a bit, I’ll be somewhat more concerned (certainly not out of the question). Obviously IF the front slows down a bit…we’ll be in better shape with the better rain chances holding off till after the game in the delayed frontal scenario.

Also another note…the amounts of rain from this don’t look overly impressive…and the dry pattern that has been pretty locked in for the last few weeks looks to rage on for another couple of weeks or so. While we’ll have some fast moving fronts sweeping through the area (with warm-ups ahead and cool-downs behind) getting moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico could be tough to achieve with the speed of the weather systems and predominantly NW flow aloft not allowing any wave to overly dig into the Rockies…it’s going to be tough to get more moisture into the 3rd week of the month. Not uncommon for October…there can be some pretty dry Octobers around here and at least for the 1st half of the month, aside from tomorrow night, things do look dry .

Oh as an FYI…AccuWeather came out with their winter 2015/16 forecast this morning…here is the link with the details. A general map of what they think is below via AccuWeather.

 

This map suggests the strong El Nino connection that many are expecting through the USA this winter season.

I’m not totally sure I agree with the reduced Lakes snowfall and the “not as brutal” NE part of the country. Perhaps compared to last year when Boston broke all their snow records it seemed…but the NE part of the country may still be vulnerable to some bigger storms (just an initial feeling so far).

OK that’s it for today. I’ll get another update out tomorrow. I’m on vacation through the middle of next week so blogs will be weather dependent.

Joe

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