Joe’s Weather Blog: Drought to flood (not here) + brown to green (here) (WED-10/22)

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Good morning…another mild afternoon is on tap for the region although the clouds are going to be more of an issue today. Rain is in the forecast for tomorrow (not all day) and cooler weather (seasonable) is likely over the weekend. Overall interesting weather to keep us busy but nothing overly bad for late October.

Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and warm once again with highs well into the 70s

Tonight: There may be a few scattered evening showers…but the better rain chances hold off till early Friday. Lows tonight down into the 50s.

Friday: Periods of rain likely in the morning especially. Then scattered showers in the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow may approach 70-75° or so. It won’t rain all day long and a good chunk of the afternoon may not be too bad. Pretty cloudy overall. Somewhat muggy and breezy. Rainfall amounts in the 1/4-3/4″ range. There is chance of some additional storms in the evening. This will depend on the instability )if we can build some). There may just be an additional showers in the evening associated with the cold front coming through.

The weekend: Overall OK with clouds SAT AM then mostly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s to around 70° or so.

Discussion:

Mentioned on Sunday that the winds would be blowing out in Chicago for the Cubs game last night…seemed to favor the Mets overall. So we now know who we could play come next Tuesday in KC. Now it’s up to the Royals to finish their end of the bargain.

The weather next week will be very up and down with odds favoring some chillier weather during the potential World Series in KC, especially Wednesday. More on that (if needed in a future blog).

So lets just tackle tomorrow. I’m very hopeful with the rain prospects. With that said there needs to be some fundamental changes in the evolution of things (which is certainly possible) for us to get a significant rain (over 1″). Lately though the rain situation seems to be tough to come by.

Something interesting when looking a the rain up at KCI over the last several months…take a look at the bottom part of the following graph.

 

We’ve really only had 4 decent rains since late July. One BIG rain on September 10th (4.28″) and not a lot of other significant rains.

At this point my feelings haven’t really changed a lot regarding the rain totals for tomorrow morning. I’m still thinking this event overall will be under 1″. The only way we get more would be IF we can get some convection going with the cold front which at this point is very iffy. What is somewhat concerning in the latest hi-res NAM model is the stripes of heavier rains for some…and the lack of rain for others…there seems to be something a little “off” with this whole thing. The one thing I’m hoping for is that the atmosphere is going to be pretty juiced up with moisture early Friday…so hopefully whatever comes this way can be more efficient in creating rainfall.

This morning there is a bunch of rain in western TX…

 

Remember all the rain that TX saw earlier in the spring. They went from devastating drought to floods in about 6 weeks time. Then the rain literally shut down. Some areas had less than 1″ all summer long. This brought the drought back to a large area of eastern TX.

 

It really is interesting to see the gyrations of the rainfall patterns down there. So what’s coming for them now? More flooding over the next 5+ days.

 

Some areas in the drought region may see 5-10″ of rain. Just crazy gyrations.

There is also some tropical moisture from the Pacific that will get involved in all the rain down there as well and another weaker wave rotating in behind the big storm from the above water vapor loop that is adding to the weather ingredient checklist for flooding rain in TX

For us…our dry spell will end but not nearly in as dramatic fashion.

The second part of this system is a cold front that will be moving through the area tomorrow evening. Instability with the front is questionable after the rain tomorrow AM and the lingering PM cloud cover. IF we can get renewed convection with the front, that would be beneficial.

The storm itself is actually a good looking storm. You can see it spinning nicely in the morning water vapor loops. The water vapor loops help us really see the moisture in the atmosphere.

 

Notice the convection brewing through western TX.

The storm is moving towards the NNE to north which is one of the reasons why we’re going to have a tough time getting a bunch of rainfall from this.

By the way…if it were me, I’d be suggesting some rain gear just in case for Friday night’s game. Hate to see some rain develop with the front and for you to be unprepared at the game itself.

The latest drought report came out today…and more of western MO is now considered under a “moderate” drought.

The tan areas represent areas of moderate drought. Yellow areas are abnormally dry conditions.

That’s it for today. Have a great Thursday!

Joe

 

 

 

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