Joe’s Weather Blog: Needed rain for Tuesday + a chill (MON-10/26)

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Good morning…crisp start to the day out there with temperatures in some of the typically colder valley locations down into the 20s. This is the 2nd morning in a row I’ve had frost in my backyard. A nice day on tap today after a wonderful Sunday in the region. Changes though are on tap for this week including some rain then a shot of colder weather that may be the 1st decent freeze for a good part of the area, especially in N MO.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies with higher clouds moving in during the afternoon. Highs today into the 60s. East winds at 10-15 MPH

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and not as cool with lows into the 40s

Tomorrow: Periods of rain lightening up in the later afternoon hours. Chilly with highs around 55°. I’m still not convinced that we’re going to get more than 1/4-1/2″ of rain from this from KC westwards…

World Series game #1: Some lighter showers/drizzle still possible early on…with drying during the game. Bring rain gear to be on the safe side…temperatures will be between 50-55° for most of the game. Light winds mostly.

Wednesday: Rapid morning clearing and cool with highs in the 50s. Blustery W/NW winds as well.

Discussion:

As is typical in late October a more active weather pattern is setting up that will yield better rain chances over the next 5+ days. A series of storms, will conspire to create some needed moisture for many areas and considering the last system didn’t do a lot in terms of giving us decent rain totals…we certainly can use some moisture. Farmers I’m guessing have been happy with the mostly dry conditions for harvesting however so there are always pros and cons with any type of weather around these parts.

Starting tomorrow I will be attending a 3 day workshop with about 70 different meteorologists and social scientists from across the USA. This workshop is going to focus on trying to look at the warning process that we do now and see if there are better ways of communicating that information to you. There are only 2 TV people at this conference and I’ll be representing the KC market and give them my thoughts about the direction I think we need to go and improve upon. Changing these types of things can be “glacial” as they say, but there are some really smart people that are going to at least start the ball rolling to getting you better information and allowing you to act on that information so you stay safe. As a result of these long days coming…no blogs will be available until at least Friday. IF I get some brief free time I may try and do a couple of short ones during down times.

As far as the weather goes…interesting stuff happening. Moisture down south is going to start working northwards. This is going to happen because a wave is dropping SEwards from the western Plains and tapping the moisture from the south. It will be acting as a vacuum cleaner in a sense sucking the moisture northwards. Rain should move into the area tomorrow morning and linger into the afternoon. The steadier and better rain may well end up farther on the MO side of the area however.

As the model data below, which will automatically update shows…there appears to be a potential “pivot” point that may set up in central MO. Should this occur we may see an area of enhance rain develop on the backside of the storm…should this happen then some areas east of KC may see upwards of 1″+ of rain. The back edge of this band of rain (where it finally sets up) will go a long way in determining how much rain the area gets.

 

As we go up into the atmosphere…to about 18,000′ or so…notice that there is going to be an upper level storm developing in the northern Plains states…this will help to push a fast moving chilly air mass into the area for Wednesday.

 

Also notice how quickly it moves into eastern Canada as well…so the cooler shot of air is really just Wednesday into Thursday morning…

Then another storm dropping into the SW part of the country will kick into the Plains…and this should give us more rain later in the week into Saturday. IF we can keep that moving along we’ll be dry for the Trick or Treaters on Saturday night…we’ll deal with that though as the week moves along.

Another note…there is somewhat a good consensus building that we’re going to see a rather mild>warm start to the month of November in these parts…especially from the Plains eastwards into the eastern part of the country. It’ll be interesting to see how chilly we get on Thursday morning and IF we can get our 1st freeze…because if not…I’m not sure when it will come.

OK that’s it for today…and perhaps for the next couple of days…have a great week and GO ROYALS. I think they win in 6 games…IF the Mets starting pitching performs…it’s going to be a tough series but I think our offense will compensate!

Joe

 

 

 

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