Joe’s Weather Blog: Next rain system on tap (MON-11/2)

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Good Royal morning to you…what a night in KC. All of you will probably remember exactly where you were the night we won the World Series in 2015. Congrats to all the Royals fans out there…all those years of watching terrible baseball for most of the season…all those loses…and all those empty seats are in the past and for the last few years it’s been a totally different season and last night was the culmination of the change!

Forecast:

Today: Some dense AM fog south of KC this morning, turning into clouds that will thin out this afternoon, For most areas though from KC  northwards, skies will be sunny today with highs well into the 70s. South winds of 10-15 MPH.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Some AM low clouds/fog then sunny and warm with highs in the 70-75° range. Windy as well with gusts over 30 MPH likely.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs 75-80°. Winds gusts to near 35 MPH possible

Discussion:

As the saying goes…we’ll sleep when we die right? A lot of tired folks out there…finally got to sleep sometime after 4AM because I was watching all the videos on the web of folks celebrating and all the craziness of the game highlights as well. Up bright and early this morning to crank out a brief weather blog for you…

Interesting morning out there as some low level moisture to our south is creeping northwards. You can see it on the early AM visible satellite picture…well south of KC.

 

Capture

This moisture will gradually thin out today…and overall it will be a sunny and bright Monday in the area…

The bigger story for the next few days will be the warm winds that will be blowing…gusts again to 30-40 MPH are possible tomorrow and especially Wednesday. We may have some cloud cover out there on Tuesday as some moisture from the south works into the area…it will be rather shallow and should “mix out” as the day moves along.

The next storm system will be quickly zipping into the region later Thursday into early Friday. The storm itself will be flying towards the NE…I’m not overly impressed at this point about getting a lot of rain from this…odds favor under 3/4″ or so. As we go up in the atmosphere to about the 500 mb level…you can see the storm coming out of the western part of the country and zipping into and through the Plains states…the storm aloft may be weakening as it flies through the Plains. Look for the “U” shape to the height lines that we look for…that is the upper level pocket of colder air that represents the storm.

 

I saw this handy conversion form for the timing in the model data above…click on the image below to make it more readable…look for the 00Z/06Z/12Z and 18Z time frames…which equals 6PM/12AM/6AM/12PM time frames

Capture

Ahead of the storm moisture will start to move up through the southern Plains. The storm itself, and the cold front attached to it will race through the region later Thursday. This means that the warm weather will stay with us into Thursday afternoon it appears before the front races through changing the temperatures for Friday into the weekend.

The average high for this time of the year is around 60°…so we’ll be well above that for the next several days as we start the month of November on a very warm note. The air that moves in later in the week is going to be more seasonable but really not overly cold.

One of the things that has been happening lately is that we’re not really tapping into cold air from Canada…and when the storms do tap into that cold air, their well northeast of KC. This is not surprising given the strong El Nino that is in progress into early November. Something to monitor because there is some model data that is showing that NOV and DC may be rather warm for the Plains states eastwards…not saying that’s going to happen…but at this point, at least through mid November, it appears we’re going to have a tough time tapping into pure cold Canadian air into the Plains states.

We can still be chilly for a day or two…bit it doesn’t appear to be anything extreme.

I leave you with this…it was a crazy newscast last night (early this morning)…

Have a great day and enjoy some great weather for the parade tomorrow (at least in terms of temperatures)…

Joe

 

 

 

 

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1 Comment

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