Joe’s Weather Blog: Front coming but rain lacking (again) (WED-11/4)
Good morning…after a picture perfect afternoon in KC yesterday for the celebration of the Royals winning the World Series, the day today seems to be repeating the trends from yesterday. Once again we’re starting rather gray and gloomy and it will take some time to start breaking up the clouds in the region. Unlike yesterday though the clouds are much more extensive this morning through the entire region…this may slow down the clearing trends that happened rather quickly yesterday.
Today: Cloudy skies with PM breaks…mild overall with highs around 70° which is still about 10+° above average. Winds will pick up a bit in the afternoon
Tonight: Fair skies early then cloudy again with lows near 60°
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies and mild. Highs well into the 60s. There may be some scattered thunderstorms later in the day, or at least some brief showers in the evening. Rainfall amounts are not looking so great…hopefully some areas could get 1/4″+ but many may struggle to get that much it appears.
Friday: Breezy and cooler with highs near 60°
Through the 1st 3 days of the month our average temperature is running almost 9° above average and today will not hurt that number all that much. A mild start this morning with lows in the upper 50s and another mild afternoon with highs around 70° are going to be well above the averages (59°/40°)
It should be noted that even with the cold front due tomorrow night sometime, this will really just bring us back to “average” heading into the weekend with another push of milder air likely early next week.
There should be a somewhat stronger storm system moving through the Plains and upper Midwest sometime during the middle of next week. What that does for us, aside from allowing another warm weather (for November) to settle back into the area for a few more days is to bring another shot of chilly air into the region in about a week or so. The model data today is diverse in the scope of the colder weather with the EURO model looking a bit suspicious with a rather cold forecast 7-10 days down the road, while the GFS model really just brings through another seasonably strong front later next week and that’s about it. Something to watch in a relatively active pattern.
Rainfall wise…not a lot is expected tomorrow evening…then more dry weather is expected through the middle of next week or so. That future storm, assuming it passes well NW of the area may not do a lot for us in terms of moisture either…but again that is a long ways away.
Speaking of moisture…over the last 60 days there are definitely areas that are getting rain…those areas through are not so much around the KC region…the map below shows the % of normal precipitation…and look for the purple-ish colors to get an idea who has had more significant rainfall compared to average. Basically through parts of the west into TX into the Gulf region and towards the Carolinas. The central and eastern Plains states are certainly struggling to this point over the last 60 days, and I’m not too excited about the next 5-7 days right now either.
If you want to stretch things out and go through the last 90 days…well the central and eastern Plains aren’t int he greatest shape either…
So more rain would be welcome although at this point with the temperatures being what they are, you get that feeling that the warmth lately may keep us mowing longer than typical into the late fall season.
That’s it for today…again let’s see how long it takes to break up the clouds in place…it could be longer than yesterday.