Joe’s Weather Blog: Major US storm + longer term cold for KC (11/13)

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Winter weather forecast will be issued on WEDNESDAY 11/25!

Good afternoon. Lots of folks talking about the nice fall weather we’ve enjoyed. I met one gentleman last night at the Olathe Mayor’s Christmas Tree fundraiser who asked me whether or not I thought that this may have been the nicest year of weather in KC in recent memory. It made me stop and think a bit. Overall we had a moderate to easy last winter…then a decent spring (which was dry for awhile) then a nice summer in terms of moisture (but very humid) and the fall has really been wonderful (though dry for many). I’m not sure if he’s right but then again he may be on to something…

With that said though…there are some significant weather features that are starting to line up to potentially change the “nice” fall we’ve had so far. These changes include a significant storm next week (TUE>WED) followed by potentially the 1st shot of Canadian air heading towards Thanksgiving week.

I mentioned about 10 days ago that I had a feeling there would be a lot to write about finishing off the month of November and that feeling is certainly there when we look at the next 10+ days of weather in the Plains…

First things first…

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and chilly with lows in the 35-40° range (not as cold as this morning).

Saturday: Sunny and mild. Overall very pleasant with highs in the 60s

Sunday: Increasing clouds and becoming windy again with highs near 65°. Some showers/rain is possible by Sunday later evening into early Monday.

Discussion:

So did you know that today is Oddball day? The date is 11/13/15 and it will be the last time this century that we have that odd number “type” day since we can’t have a 13/15/17 future date…I had no idea.

Also this morning was the coldest start to a day this fall. We dropped to 29° at KCI. Kearney dropped to 25°…so chilly for sure. The bright sunshine combined with a light SW wind though has allowed temperatures to once again soar to 60°+ in some areas. This November thus far is 13 days old and we’ve had 1 day with below average temperatures (and that was the 8th when we were 1° below avg). We’ve also had one day of exactly average temperatures. Today may turn into an “average” day as well depending on IF we can get to 61°.

So let’s start talking about some of the bigger changes that will be happening to our weather next week and beyond.

The latest surface pressure map shows a nice area of high pressure controlling things in the Plains states…this map should auto-update as new data comes in.

 

As that area of higher pressure slides towards the east of KC, moisture from the south with start working it’s way northwards over the weekend, especially later Sunday. Initially the better surface moisture (dew points) will actually be located farther west of the KC region but they should get here later Monday. With that said there is going to be a weak wave come up through the southern Rockies later Sunday into Monday. With moisture being more plentiful towards the south and southwest of KC, thunderstorms should break out in western TX and move northeastwards towards western MO and eastern KS. They will weaken as they get closer to our immediate area but at least there should be about a 6-9 hour window when some rain will be in the area…this wave will pass us first thing Monday morning and while Monday may be pretty cloudy and breezy, it may overall be mostly dry.

There is a more important wave that will be moving in Tuesday into Wednesday that promises to develop a significant surface low int he southern Plains states that should move northeastwards towards the KC area Tuesday.

The NAM model shows this well as we go up through the atmosphere to about the 500 millibar level…or about 18,000 feet up. Notice in the data below the weak and smaller wave that moves through later Sunday into Monday AM…then look out west to the stronger “U” shaped wave. This is what’s going to spin up a healthy southern Plains storm by later Monday into Tuesday.

 

Eventually this future storm is going to create a LOT of rain for parts of the country. Odds are this won’t be us in KC proper but things obviously can change. The more targeted area for not only flooding rain but even some severe weather will be areas towards the east of KC from eastern MO through AR and into the TN Valley region.

Here is a rainfall forecast from the NWS…

 

Notice it has us in close to 2″ of rainfall. If this verifies that would be the best rain we’ve seen in about 2 months in these parts. It would be welcome for sure. With that said I NOT convinced that things will be as wet as the forecast above.

Now look at the latest GFS total precip forecast through next week…

gfs_tprecip_mc_29

For most of the KC area that’s closer to 1/2″ or so.

The Canadian model…is more bullish with 1.5-2″ pretty widespread.

cmc_total_precip_mc_29

The EURO forecast, which I can’t show due to data restrictions, is more along the lines of the Canadian.

The GFS model can’t be discounted in my opinion. The reason why the model is 1″+ lighter in the totals is because it’s generating a big-time dry slot as the storm wraps up in the southern Plains region. As I mentioned yesterday storms like this can get so wound up that they fling the precipitation far from the storms core…towards the east and north of the center of the storm. The NW and west side of the storm ( in the colder air) tens to be closer to the core of the storm…hence the potential of a wet heavy snow somewhere out in western KS into SE CO. Again the storm is not really a “cold” storm so it’s going to have to create some of the cold air by itself through the intensification of the storm’s center chilling the atmosphere around it.

Since the storm barely exists at this point int eh upper part of the atmosphere way out in the Pacific…a lot can and will change over the next couple of days. The wave now exists but the wave is going to split…come together…then split again through Monday. When this happens the computer models will have issues with the end results farther down the road…hence how things can change.

In the longer term, heading towards next weekend and then the early part of Thanksgiving week…there is a more Canadian type air mass that may play a big role in the weather here for a few days. So the mildness of November will be flipping (for at least a few days) in the longer term it appears.

That’s it for today…have a great weekend. enjoy the weather because there are some colder days showing up down the road.

Joe

 

 

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