Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold shot #1 + cold shot #2 (FRI-11/20)

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Good afternoon. A reminder that the winter weather forecast is scheduled for Wednesday 11/25 during the evening. I will be writing up a blog with my thoughts and the rest of the team sometime before that forecast airs on TV. We’ll see how we do this year…personally my forecast was way off last year, from a snow total standpoint at least.

Forecast:

This afternoon: Cloudy skies with some mist/drizzle possible. Light rain will fall in N MO. There may be an ice pellet or two mixed in up north. Highs today only around 50°

Tonight: A cold front will move through the area near or just after 12AM tomorrow morning. This front will usher in MUCH chillier air (really not unusual for NOV). Winds will increase to 20-30 MPH. Until then temperatures tonight should hold pretty steady in the 40s. Some light rain is possible. Any switch-over to flakes will be fleeting at best in the KC area (if at all). Lows by daybreak in the 25-30° with wind chills closer to 10°

Saturday: Becoming sunny and breezy. Chilly with highs in the 30s but wind chills in the 20s for most of the day.

Sunday: Sunny and not as cold but still cool. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows Sunday morning will vary with expected clouds moving through the region. Again as low as 20° possible with few clouds and mid 20s likely with more clouds.

Discussion:

Cold shot #1 is in the process of working through the Plains today. Here is the 11AM surface map showing the developing surface storm in the western Plains. There is a warm front extending towards the east and located near and north of KC. The colder air is starting to spill into the western Plains now and will eventually spill through our area overnight tonight.

sfc

 

Up to the north of KC…there is a lot of snow in the forecast..and a lot has already fallen. One of my colleagues in Sioux Falls, SD already is reporting 6″ of snow as of Noon today.

 

 

So certainly a mess along the I-80 corridor towards the north of KC. As far as snow closer to the KC area…there maybe some flakes and perhaps some minor to 1″ accums up towards the IA border into NE MO…but aside from that don’t get too excited about seeing any sticking snow in the KC area…yet…flakes maybe…much more…very doubtful.

This shot of cold air…will be a rude one, only because it’s been so mild for the month of November so far. Through yesterday our temperatures were 6.3° above average for the month. This makes 11/1-11/19 the 10th warmest start to November in KC weather history.

 

Capture

Although after the next few days…this ranking should drop off with the colder weather trends coming (we may have a 12AM high temperature though on Saturday).

Something interesting is the large contrast between November 2014 and November 2015 (so far at least)…look at last November (as a whole)

 

Now look at this November through yesterday…

 

almost the complete opposite. Now IF you think all this is directly connected to the raging El Nino…you may be right…let’s look at the last time El Nino was this strong (and perhaps stronger to a certain extent), back in November of 1997.

 

Hmmmm. Can you see the difference (it’s almost totally the opposite). See not all Nino’s are the same in terms of how the alter the weather pattern…at least during the month of November.

Back to our weather…this cold shot will depart on Sunday..although even with a SW wind blowing on Sunday, highs should be in the 40s and it will “feel” cooler that the deceiving sunshine will lead you to believe.

We should moderate into Thanksgiving day as south and SW winds will help to warm our temperatures up. A run towards 60° is not out of the question depending on the cloud situation. Moisture will eventually come up starting on Wednesday. Dew points are forecast to get well into the 50s WED/THU ahead of a more potent cold front that will be moving through sometime on Thanksgiving. The timing to the hour, obviously can’t be made at this point, but that front will be in the area starting THU AM next week…and ahead of the front there will be some decent rain developing and moving into the region during the day. So at this point things don’t look good for the holiday itself and for the night of Thanksgiving. I’m confident it will be mild ahead of the front and about 15-20° colder behind the front…where that front is at 6-7PM during the Plaza lighting ceremony though is anyone’s guess.

Beyond that the only thing I can promise at this point is the cold air heading into NEXT weekend (starting sometime on Thanksgiving or Friday). In terms of anything falling from the sky…it’s wayyyy to early to really get concerned about wintry weather, if there is any in the KC region). The GFS is very dry for next weekend while the new EURO is very wet for next weekend. I trust that information no more than I trusted the information of yesterday…it’s just too early to dictate how things are going to play out. Again just something to be aware of and certainly NOT anything to start cancelling family visits etc. It may though to tough to get any snow from this scenario as the temperatures above the surface will don’t look supportive for snow at this point.

That’s it for today…I’ll probably get a blog write up done on Saturday then start writing the winter weather forecast blog on Sunday which will be published 1st thing Wednesday (that’s my game plan at least).

Have a great weekend!

Joe

 

 

 

 

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