Joe’s Weather Blog: Jetstream is doing the splits (MON-11/30)

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So we’re about to finish of the month…and finally work ourselves free of this persistent storm, or at least the precipitation producing part of the storm. The day has dawned with plenty of rain out there…and it will be a wet day at times…but there is some sunshine at the end of the tunnel starting tomorrow AM.

Forecast:

Today: Occasional showers with steadier rains across N MO and NE KS…see radar below. Highs today in the upper 30s. Rain should taper later this morning…and the afternoon will be damp with occasional lighter showers/drizzle.

Tonight: We may finally see some clearing skies work into at least part of thee area, although we could also see some fog develop. Temperatures will remain pretty steady in the 30s

Tomorrow: Finally at least some sunshine, assuming it’s not taking awhile to burn through the AM fog (if any). Then we’ll start getting some backwash clouds circulating around the snowstorm to the north of the region. Highs Tuesday should get into the 40s.

Wednesday: Backwash clouds are likely with some PM clearing possible. Highs back to near 40°

No significant snow is expected for quite some time.

Discussion:

I guess I have to start with radar…showing all rain through the region…enough said.

The 8AM surface map shows temperatures through the region above freezing…so we’re done with the icy stuff.

Farther north where the colder air is more abundant through the atmosphere…we’re seeing snow increasing through NE and the upper Midwest. Look at this 8AM surface map and look for the little stars between the temperatures in RED and the dew points in GREEN…those are snow reports…the little dots are rain reports. More stars/dots the heavier the precipitation is (up to 4)

Regional radar shows the storm nicely…and it’s going to snow pretty good up the north of the region today>Tuesday.

 

The snow forecasts are pretty significant up there…

Just another facet of the long term storm that has been churning around for a while out across the western part of the country and moving through the upper Midwest today and tomorrow.

You can see the storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere as we go up to jet stream level…it’s “cut-off” from the main jetstream way up into Canada. This is not unusual when El Nino late fall/winter patterns are driving the weather.  This “split flow” pattern is common place…and it won’t be till the jetstreams start coming together that we start seeing Canadian cold weather come down into the US with any regularity. Take a look at the following graphic…

sfc

I know it looks confusing…but it highlights the various streams in the jet. The streams “split” in the eastern Pacific shown by the RED oval…then then attempt to come back together in the NE Atlantic. When storms get caught under the northern branch of the jetstream they can “cut-off” and wander around for days at a time (sound familiar). The southern branch of the jet stream is typically wetter and the northern branch is typically pushed way into Canada.

You can see the effects of this on the air masses…when you see mild air up across central Canada…that’s a telling signal what’s going on. The true cold air is bottled up near and north of Hudsons Bay in Canada.

sounding

Now you might be saying to yourself…but it sure is cold here…well your right but in reality the cold air is only 5-10° below average and that’s more of a function of the clouds and the rain than the actual air mass. IF we would’ve had sunshine on this air mass it would be closer to average for late November if that makes any sense.

Essentially as soon as we can break free from the effects of the clouds and start moderating the air mass…we should be in much better shape. Part of my winter forecast thoughts are a back-loaded winter where DEC is milder than average and JAN/FEB is where winter starts kicking into gear more often…and we get colder.

Here is the 8-14 day forecast into the 2nd week of DEC…this shows the probabilities of warmer than average temperatures…

 

It’s an overall warm look isn’t it. Sure there will be a few storms…but again we’re going to be fighting a “warmer than average” atmosphere overall…so unless you can get a storm with a core of it’s own cold air to come on the exact right path…it’s going to be tough for us to get significant snowfall here for quite some time.

That’s it for today…I’ve done a ton of blogging and I think I may try to take a blog day off tomorrow…weather permitting of course.

Joe

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