Joe’s Weather Blog: Island of cool in a sea of warmth (WED-12/16)

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Good morning…temperatures and the wind are a bit chillier today compared to the last several days as a cold front swept through the area earlier this morning. This front and another shot of chilly weather coming will actually bring temperatures to average or even below average for a couple of days…but as the title of the blog insinuates, this is a little blip in an overall warm pattern as we finish of 2015. This won’t go down as the warmest December on record, but it should be in the top 15 or so by the time things are all said and done.

Forecast:

Today: In and out clouds, especially farther north. Cooler for sure and blustery with highs in the 40s…average is about 40° so we’re pretty close to average for a change.

Tonight: Colder than it has been in a while with lows in the 20s

Tomorrow: Chilly with clouds and highs in the 30s. A blustery day. There may be a few evening flurries with the shot of colder air coming in for Friday.

Discussion:

I think I’ll be keeping this blog short and sweet today, since this is my last day of vacation and I’ve done a lot of blogging on vacation it seems…in a nutshell, more seasonable weather to finish off the work-week…a milder weekend, especially Sunday, then a brief cool down early next week, before we warm up again heading towards Christmas.

White Christmas chance in KC is 0% at this point. I had 2% yesterday and said that was shooting high. I just see nothing encouraging about the weather pattern next week. If you’ve heard about some “big” storm or something crazy…you’re being misled. There is no “big” storm coming.

Here is the GFS forecast for snow cover on Christmas day…

gfs_snow_depth_conus2_40

and it’s forecast for temperature anomalies…good luck with snow in that sea of warmth!

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_40

Basically it’s the same old story…warm central and east and cold west…been there done that over and over for the last month or so. Going back to November 1st…take a look…

ncep_cfsv2_180_t2anom_usa

You can see the similarities…

(graphics above courtesy of Weather Bell)

I saw this information, putting the 1st half of December into perspective for us…it shows the ranking in terms of the warmth that has gripped most of the USA to start the month. I’ve seen stories relating to how this is having a devastating impact on some retail sales with regards to winter clothing. Obviously you can’t sell coats and gloves when you’re running around in shorts!

Capture

The dark red number 1’s in the above graphic show the warmth rankings so far this month…and it will change over the next 2 weeks overall…but that is a lot of warm weather. For KC…we use what’s called “threaded data”. This is a combination of weather sites through the 1880s to give us our period of record (POR). This is because the “official” KC record sites have moved around several times through the decades…now it’s based out of KCI (since it opened) and for KCI this is our 2nd warmest start to DEC…going back to the early 70s…and for the downtown airport this is our 3rd warmest start going back some 70+ years…pretty impressive stuff regardless and a little confusing.

That’s it for today…enjoy the brief cool down…because overall the pattern is a mild too somewhat warm one into Christmas…

Joe

 

 

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