Joe’s Weather Blog: Focus on the quick hitting cold (THU-1/7)

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Thanks for taking a few minutes out of your busy day to spend a little time with the FOX 4 Weather Blog…

If you made a New Year’s resolution to do some exercising, outdoors, you’ve been sorely disappointed over the last few days. It’s been cool and dreary out there and tomorrow isn’t going to be a lot better. The rain is tapering a bit but we’ll again fight additional areas of drizzle and mist this afternoon and then rain and overnight fog in the KC area. Radar is in the discussion part of the blog.

Forecast:

Tonight: Rain and some fog. Temperatures steady or even rising a bit overnight with readings steady in the low-mid 40s

Tomorrow: There may be a few showers in the AM…then drier but still gray weather is expected for most of the day. Temperatures should back off a few degrees as a surface low moves through and switches the wind towards the NW in the AM. There isn’t a lot of cold air immediately behind this storm though. Temperatures should be in the 40° range for most of the day

Saturday: Occasional flurries and a few snow showers (especially S/SE/E of KC) as another storm passes well south and southeast of KC. Mostly cloudy with increasing north winds and colder air spilling into the region as the day moves along. We may be around 30°+ near daybreak then drop through the 20s as the day moves along. North winds will be increasing to 15-25 MPH and wind chills will be heading closer to 0°

Sunday: Partly cloudy and bitterly cold with highs around 20° and near 0° wind chills

Discussion:

Get ready to hop aboard the temperature rollercoaster. Fast moving shots of cold air, followed almost within 24-36 hours by switching winds allowing moderating warmth to move towards the KC area will keep us hoping trying to figure out the coldest parts of the day and the potential, in some cases, of steady to rising overnight temperatures.

For those with the snow itch…we’re still struggling for anything significant in the immediate KC area. We’re watching the final storm in this particular series of storms move into the area Saturday. So we have one tomorrow AM moving through and another Saturday passing well south of the area. UNLESS that Saturday system comes farther towards the north…100 to 200 miles worth (maybe even more) it’s going to be a struggle for us to get more than 1″ of snow with everything happening.

Today’s system, and it’s circulation, shows up well in the regional radar. The circulation is in S KS as I type this…

 

It will be coming right towards the KC area tomorrow morning…and if you notice on regional radar the “lift” associated with that core is creating more precip to off towards the west of here…as the core moves east overnight, we should see increasing areas of rain develop ahead of it and with it as it moves through. Once it passes by Friday morning, we’ll see a shut-off of the significant rainfall.

Next on the storm parade is this system in AZ now…this is the one that created the heavy rains/snow in CA with some severe weather yesterday. It’s moving through AZ now…and the snow in N AZ has been impressive.

Here is a web image from Northern Arizona University…

 

Meanwhile, farther up in elevation towards the Arizona Snowbowl…they’re loving it…with close to 40″ and counting…

 

It’s a snow lovers dream up there…

This storm looks to pass more south of the immediate KC area Saturday…it will threaten eastern and southern MO with accumulating snow…we may have snow showers here, but again amounts look to be minor…amounts farther east though could be in the 2-6″ range as you travel from Columbia towards St Louis and then into the I-44 corridor region as well…again a significant track change needs to happen for this to amount to something more significant in the KC vicinity. Areas from Butler>Clinton>Sedalia>Carrollton should monitor this storm closely just in case there is a bit of a track change.

The main thing about our weather though will be the fast moving shots of cold air moving in then out of the KC area. One shot comes Saturday into Sunday…departs Sunday night and another comes in on Tuesday. At this point it appears the one over the weekend is a slightly colder air mass than the one on Tuesday.

We moderate for a few extra days starting Wednesday into Friday as highs may push towards 45-50° which is about 10° above average. We’ll see if clouds dent the potential warm-up later next week. Typically all these ups and downs result in cloud cover that creates tricky temperature forecasting.

I may do a bit more of an in-depth blog regarding some of the various indices that we look at in tomorrow’s edition. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are both forecasted to crater over the next week to levels that typically don’t occur. What does this mean and what happens when these levels have cratered in the past…that might be an interesting subject for a blog. I’ve done some research and obtained some of the record extremes for these values…I haven’t poked too much into it yet…will do so tomorrow afternoon…not sure what the data will end up showing.

Joe

 

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