Joe’s Weather Blog: Now about those snow chances (FRI-1/15)

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Good afternoon and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather blog. Today’s blog will be talking about the cold and the snow potential over the next 5 days or so. The cold weather is a guarantee…we’ll see about the snow…I also want to touch on the weather up in New England (Foxboro which is SW of Boston).

Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and chilly (but really not that terrible for January). Lows in the teens

Tomorrow: In and out sunshine and cool. The average high is around 38° and we should be closer to 30°.

Sunday: There may be some morning snow moving through. Accumulations may be anywhere from a dusting to about 1″ or so. It’s not out of the question that areas in northern and northeastern MO may see a dusting to 2″. Then variable clouds and bitterly cold with falling temperatures. We’ll probably more or less have a 12AM high well in the 20s, then drop before daybreak into the teens and really just struggle all day. Afternoon temperatures should be around 15° give or take. Winds will be out of the north at 15-25 mph. Wind chills will be sub-zero for most of the day.

Discussion:

I wanted to post an image that I saved for yesterday’s blog and forgot to put on there. It concerns the lack of snow so far in the KC metro (@KCI). Here we are the 15th of January (halfway through meteorological winter) and we have a whooping 2.5″ of snow. Yesterday I mentioned that this was the 21st least snowiest “snow” seasons so far in KC

Capture

I’ve eliminated the #1 ranking of 1888-89 because of an incomplete log of snowfall. In other words there were a LOT of missing values through 1/15 so that record is dubious at best.

If you missed yesterday’s blog…I then looked at the 20 years that has less snow that what we’re working with right now…and 40% of the cases, our snow total for the season was UNDER 10″.

It’s just sort of a random tidbit…and things can turn around on a dime when it comes to snow…but boy we’re pulling teeth this year, and today’s EURO run scared the pants off this particular snow lover because it has MUCH warmer air coming into the area NEXT weekend and you can sort of see how we may lose the colder air again and a faster and more pacific type flow may take over heading towards the end of the month (very speculative). So that means we have to “make hay” while we can.

The 1st opportunity will come Sunday early morning as arctic air invades and moves from through the area from the northern Plains…this air mass will be loaded for bear in terms of the cold air. Temperatures will probably be around 20-25° at 12AM and then tank thereafter towards daybreak. Once in the tank…they won’t recover much. So it will be cold enough…but the snow situation is less defined. Here is a look at the NAM forecasted chances of precip. this model will auto-update through the weekend for you.

For time reference…12Z is 6AM/18Z is Noon/00Z is 6PM and 06Z is 12AM.

Now depending on when you read this blog…for the ones who read it FRI PM…the snow just sort of skirts near KC but mainly seems to be an issue NE of the KC metro area towards north central and NE MO.

The latest hi-res NAM does have somewhat better looking forecasted radar products for early Sunday. It would be over by 9AM or so I think (whatever we get) and at this point. At this point it’s tough to imagine more that a dusting to about 1″ or so in the KC area…it will be very wind blown as well so it will be tough to measure anyway.

Snow chance #2 looks a bit better and that is timed out to Tuesday into Wednesday. IF everything comes together we may be looking at a dusting to maybe 3″ with that system. The GFS is a bit more bullish in the mid levels of the atmosphere than the EURO is from a moisture standpoint. The GFS ensembles are actually cranking out 1/4″ of moisture or so (which would be all snow) and perhaps with ratios working for us…this might be our most significant snow of the season IF it pans out. I just looked at the EURO ensembles as well and it too is cranking out 1/10-2/10″ of moisture…equating to up to 3″ of snow…

For snow lovers, at least there’s a chance of something a little more noteworthy because after that I’m not too excited about what’s coming down the pike as far as winter weather goes.

NOW IF we miss out on snow chance number 2…then we have another issue heading towards next weekend…and that would be the return of Spring weather in KC and how warm it may get…and it may really warm up IF there is no snow on the ground and the model data is close to being accurate. The EURO today, especially, is pretty toasty for next weekend. Heck the EURO ensembles are close to 20°F above average at around 5,000′ up for NEXT Saturday.

Finally for the football game Saturday afternoon…a big storm will be exiting the New England area. Right now it looks dry on the assumption that things DO NOT slow down 3-6 hours. IF that happens there will be rain issues. Right now we’ll go with cloudy weather and temperatures well into the 30s with NW/W winds at 5-15 MPH. That is going to be a big nor’easter but it will be dumping snow more towards the interior New England area as opposed to the coastal area. I guess there could be a few snowflakes there around or before lunch time but no accumulations are expected.

OK that’s it for today…have a great weekend and I’ll update the blog again tomorrow afternoon before the game starts.

Joe

 

 

 

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