Joe’s Weather Blog: A cold dump + 3 snow chances (SAT-1/16)

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Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes with the FOX 4 Weather Blog. Busy day for KC with the Chiefs in New England and a busy day for yours truly as a lot of weather is on tap for the next 5-7 days with the cold weather a guarantee, along with at least some snow…how much overall remains to be seen but there are some early signs that this week will be an actual wintry type week with the potential of school closures/delays.

Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies this evening turn cloudy. Snow is likely to move through the area after 2AM and continue till about daybreak Sunday. Most of it will be light snow but there may be some brief pockets of moderate snows. Final accumulations should be a dusting to about 2″ through the region. The KC metro should be closer to a 1/2 to 1 1/2″ or so. Should we get into that 1″ territory or even a little below…roads may be slick in areas in the morning. The winds will increase towards daybreak as the temperatures head downwards. We will be in the 20s through the early morning

Sunday: Bitterly cold air comes in with north winds of 15-25 MPH through mid afternoon. Temperatures will crash to 10-15°. Wind chills will be well below 0° through mid afternoon. Skies will break up and some sunshine is expected.

Sunday night: Likely to be the coldest night so far this winter. Lows from 0 to -5°. Some areas may be colder.

Monday: Partly cloudy and continued cold with highs 15-20°

Discussion:

Well we’ve avoided the worst of winter so far, and despite a few rather cold but brief incursions of chilly air…we’re been dodging the snow aspect of the winter season. So far we’ve tallied up 2.5″ of snow this winter at KCI. There is the potential of getting that much and more in the next 5-7 days. Right now I’m sort of more intrigued about Tuesday into early Wednesday. Anything beyond that is a major question but for what they’re worth…2 models (the GFS and the Canadian model are rather bullish for a storm later in the week). The EURO model does not have the storm here, it’s more focused towards the south into the Gulf coastal area. We’ll worry about that early next week.

Between now and then though the cold will have to be reckoned with for sure. That part of the weather is my guarantee to you. Bitterly cold air is on the way. Here is the 12PM surface map…showing the temperatures in RED.

 

On the map above the leading edge of the arctic air is located north of Omaha, NE and has moved through Sioux Falls, SD. Temperatures quickly tank to sub-zero (without wind chill) up into the northern Plains states. Here is a more colorized map via the OK Mesonet

 

Now the ind chills…going to be brutal up to the north tonight and tomorrow.

 

Not that unusual up there really…and while you may think it’s been brutal up there, at least compared to average it’s not been that bad so far this January (and certainly for the winter overall). Note the anomalies in the next graphic.

 

You can see the push of nasty cold air coming, by looking at the temperatures just above the surface…this is courtesy NEXLAB.

You can see the cold air dump in and then retreat later Monday into Tuesday. That is ahead of another weak disturbance that turns the winds at that level to the south. This will allow more moderating air into the region, however there should be at least some moisture with that return flow…that sets the stage for another snow even Tuesday.

As the cold air gets ready to pour in early tomorrow snow will be moving into the region. The hi-res NAM model is getting more and more bullish with the total precip expected, again all snow.

hires_tprecip_kc_31

 

Notice the banding look to the totals and also some areas (probably not an accurate portrayal of the exact locations) with over .15″ of liquid equivalent. With snow ratios somewhat in our favor that would easily translate to 2″ of snow…so that’s why I think a dusting to 2″ in the region is a good start for a snow forecast including KC. As you can see some may get less than 1″. Just depends on the exact locations of the banding features. That will be determined by radar overnight into early Sunday. This would be snow chance #1.

Here is the HRRR model showing the potential evolution of what’s ahead tonight via IA State.

Here is the NWS forecast for the KC area through tomorrow evening…wind chills may be a bit lower tomorrow but I think you get the point.

Capture

The next snow system may start as flurries Tuesday afternoon as we wait for the atmosphere to saturate. Then we should get into some steady mostly light snow later Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Depending o timing we may have slick conditions for rush hour Tuesday evening. The hi resolution EURO model shows the potential of 1-4″ through the area with this and this looks to be a reasonable 1st forecast for that event (this would be snow chance #2). Liquid equivalents may be close to 1/3″.  This looks to be the beefier of the 2 snow chances.

From there, we’ll see. Should the last chance later in the week target our area…that could be the heaviest of the 3 chances. IF it goes south, like the EURO suggests and we miss out, we’ll slowly moderate into the weekend although the snow cover in place will play a large role in the potential tempering of the warm-up despite the mild air moving in aloft at least.

A lot on the proverbial weather plate in the KC area…for snow lovers this may be the week we get something to be happy about and for those in the snow removal business…Mother Nature may finally stir up a little business for you as well.

Joe

 

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