Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm gets together out west (SUN-1/31)

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Good afternoon. I just wanted to thank all the blog readers over the last several days. Not surprisingly when it comes to weather, KC is really into things. How do I know that? Well weather consistently is the #1 item that folks watch local TV news for. Another way is watching the web metrics, which I don’t do often. The FOX 4 Weather Blog was very popular over the past 4+ days. It was the 5th most clicked on story on Wednesday…the 3 most clicked on story on Thursday, the 2nd most clicked on story on Friday and yesterday we were #1. Thanks so much for taking the time and reading my thoughts!

Also thanks so much for “liking” me on my new FB page. IF you haven’t…go do it now. There are different things I can do there as opposed to my twitter page (@fox4wx). It’s a bit of an experiment and I need your input every so often as to what you like and don’t like.

Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cooler with lows into the 20s

Monday: Variable clouds and still mild with highs well into the 40s to near 50°.

Tuesday: Rain and maybe a thunderstorm in the morning…then there actually may be a break in the clouds…followed by colder air moving in the evening with some snow showers possible at night. Highs will warm into the 40s before dropping in the evening down into the 20s. Areas SE of KC may see temperatures into the mid 50s! More on the snow in the discussion.

Discussion:

Well very simply IF you’re a snow lover in KC…these last 2 years have been rather frustrating. I don’t seem to remember us having many chances of a big storm last year…and while we’ve had storms this year…it’s been too mild (overall) for a lot of snow in the KC area…and it appears that this may be the case again. Combined with a storm track that while not set in concrete…let’s just say the concrete is being poured.

Sometimes you have to laugh…but for snow lovers, and weather aficionados that enjoy watching what Mother Nature can dish out…we’ve had to eat lots of dried out and overcooked meat these last couple of years.

The models at various times over the last week or so were dishing out some nice eye candy. I wrote quite a bit about the track of the storm needing to be more towards the south. I really thought that would happen…well if anything the data today even puts N MO at risk of NOT seeing a lot of snow. It’s not that the storm won’t come together…those lime green counties about 150 miles north of KC will be going from a Blizzard Watch to warning later today or tomorrow (watch for those counties to light up in an orange-y color)

 

Capture

 

It will…and rather nicely at that.

It’s just that it’s all happening too far north of the KC area…

Look out the to west on the water vapor loop…and you can see the storm organizing now.

 

Check out the radar in the SW part of the country…nice rains again for CA.

 

It will move into the Plains states and as it does so…it will develop a surface storm tomorrow in the western Plains…that will come toward the KC area on Tuesday. as it gets closer it will draw in warmer air at the surface and that will send temperatures into the 40s I think from KC eastwards with the potential of 50°+ just east of KC and SE of the metro. Can you believe it?

sfc

That surface low has to be MUCH farther south…odds heavily say no chance of that happening

 

So the end result of this is that we’re left looking at a rather substantial snow with blizzard conditions north of the area…and even potentially north of the MO/IA border.

The NAM model has this for snow amounts…

nam_3hr_snow_acc_mc_21

Don’t take this verbatim…but it gives you an idea where the heavier snows will potentially wind up…

Behind the storm there should be at least some wrap around snows which we may dabble in…and I guess IF everything worked out…maybe we can get <2″ out of that…but it may not even be that much. Here is the hi-res NAM model showing the evolution of things. For timing purposes…06Z is 12AM…12Z is 6AM…18Zis Noon and 00Z is 6PM

Via NEXLAB

 

IF you’re planning on traveling north towards the I-80 corridor…that may be a tough deal on Tuesday. Of course folks are focused on the elections in IA on Monday…but a lot of folks are going to be stuck up there on Tuesday.

Let’s see how much these numbers go up over the next few days. This chart from IA State shows how much snow has fallen so far this snow season. Des Moines and Omaha are looking pretty good for heavier snows.

The ski resorts out west should get some more white gold!

 

Oh and to add insult to injury for KC now lovers…there is going to be a huge dry slot develop with the storm that will wrap up into the region as well. This was a concern for me all week even IF the storm was taking a more favorable track. So snow lovers are getting punched in the face and stomach with this thing.

One note…as the cold air comes into the area Tuesday night…I can’t rule out seeing some slick conditions develop as the moisture on the ground freezes up (if there is snow or melted snow). Just something to be aware of and file in the back of your mind…we’ll deal more with that though on Tuesday.

Behind this storm, aside from a stretch of cool to cold temperatures…I really don’t see a lot to be excited about for snow lovers at this point. There are no signs of any BIG snow makers for the Plains at this point (after TUE) in the immediate or mid range future.

OK that’s it for today…tried to keep this blog a little shorter.

Again don’t forget…

SM

 

Thanks and have a great day!

Joe

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