Joe’s Weather Blog: Drops…a rumble?…a flake and blah (MON-2/1)

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So the month of January is over. We actually finished about 1° above average. Which combined with a very warm December…means so far to us weather geeks, meteorological winter is running #26 in terms of the warmest 1st 2 months (DEC>JAN) in KC weather history. Last year was 42nd warmest through 1/31. Meanwhile in 2014, it was the 16th coldest. Of course all that warm air is NOT conducive to getting a lot of snow…here in KC at least. We are tied with the 28th least snowiest OCT-JAN period in KC weather history. Believe it or not..last snow season…was 1/10″ more through the end of January. For snow lovers and those who make some extra money when there are significant snows…it’s painful.

Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with showers and maybe even some thunderstorms moving through the area before daybreak. Lows steady in the 40s

Tuesday: Variable clouds…there may be enough sunshine during the AM hours at some point to allow temperatures to pop into the 50s(!). Then colder air will wrap into the area and temperatures will quickly drop off late in the afternoon and evening into the 20s. There may be some flurries or light snow patches rotating through the area. Accumulations, if any will be minor.

Wednesday: Seasonable with highs into the 30s. Skies should be partly cloudy.

Discussion:

So the storm is tracking north…even most of N MO won’t be getting too much out of this it appears. IF nothing else out of this, I’m almost more surprised by this aspect of things. Surface storms that track on TOP of KC typically can’t produce much snow here. Too warm warm air comes up ahead of the storm. We needed to see that surface low MUCH farther south…towards I-44 (or south) for us to be more into the snow angle of things. As you know for most of last week I was thinking that that could happen. Obviously it won’t.

sfc

Forecast for Noon Tuesday

So from a snow standpoint…this is roughly what we’re looking at, off the high res NAM model.

hires_snow_mw_49

courtesy of WeatherBell

It’s going to be an I-80 mess for sure…the only question are the amounts…but blizzard warnings are in effect for that area.

 

There is going to be a very sharp southern cutoff from a dusting to 6″+ of snow…so I’m sure some folks up there are gnashing their teeth a bit trying to get this one right.

From our standpoint…we’ll be in the warm air for a little while early Tuesday through part of Tuesday afternoon. This means milder air from the south, and somewhat higher surface moisture (dew points) will move into the region. Here is the noon weather map…with the temperatures in RED.

Notice those 60s in OK/AR..tonight they wont be dropping all that much…and then with the winds here shifting towards the SE tomorrow early AM…some of that warmer air will be brought our way.

To top things off for a snow lover, the dry slot of the storm will move through as well. This occurs when drier air, typically in the mid levels of the atmosphere gets sucked into the storm from the S or SW part of the country. Tomorrow morning, with enough wind, we may “mix” some of this drier air towards the surface…this would break up the clouds and allow us to get some sunshine…boosting temperatures even more IF this occurs and is timed out right. So instead of possible snow Tuesday, we MAY see highs into the 50s. Those temperatures could be too high IF things don’t work out right…even so we’ll still be in the 40s. I may shed a tear. Here is the forecast off the NAM model for Tuesday at noon showing what could play out.

nam_t2m_mc_11

Noon Tuesday temperatures

Colder air will wrap in behind the surface storm. Here are the forecasted 9PM temperatures

nam_t2m_mc_14

9PM Tuesday with the colder air wrapping in behind the storm

What is interesting about this, is even behind the storm, there is NOT a lot of unseasonably cold weather coming into the region…we’ve seen this more than a few times this winter.

Pretty decent signals that after a milder Saturday and an OK Sunday, some colder weather will be coming next week. At this point though no significant snows (3″+) are expected in the next 7-10+ days. That will take us almost towards mid February but I don’t like where we’re going aloft at least into the middle part of the month (in terms of potential significant snows in the immediate area)

That’s it for today…I really need to take a day or two off from the blog. Lots of LONGGGG blogs in the last week. I may tomorrow, if not certainly Wednesday. I do have something though that I want to blog about…concerning breaking down the 1st 2 months of the winter season from a temperature standpoint…perhaps in 10 day chunks to see how things changed or didn’t through the winter so far + what’s ahead for February.

Oh and tomorrow is Ground Hog day.

 

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Joe

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SM

 

 

 

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