Joe’s Weather Blog: Winter…spring…winter…spring (THU-2/25)

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Those of us who keep track of various weather stats are always interested when a “meteorological” season concludes. We look at the seasons a little differently than most…while in 99.9% of the hemisphere…spring is about 24 days away… in the world of weather…we look at march 1st as the 1st day of “meteorological” spring. I think this is because it’s just easier to crunch numbers. we’re weird that way!

More on why I’m bring this all up in the “discussion” part of the blog.

Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and chilly with lows in the 20s

Friday: More sunshine and milder with highs around 50°

Saturday: Windy and warm…the record is 73°…highs should be around 70°. Tying the record is not out of the question but the temperatures above us won’t be as warm as they were last week when we were tying and breaking records…and the winds won’t be as fierce but still it will be windy with gusts to 35 MPH possible. NO BURNING due to grass fire concerns with the dry “fuel” (dormant and dried out terrain) just sitting there

Sunday: A little cooler and a pinch less wind…but still warm for late February. Highs around 65°

Discussion:

February only has a few days left in it…and it will go down as another warm month in KC. December was 8.2° above average…January was .8° and so far February (through yesterday) was 4.9° above average. We have some warm days to finish the month…so we may end up 5-6° above average…

So far this winter (since 12/1) we’ve had 57 days above average…23 days below average and 6 days exactly average

It been mild and “brown” as the snow deficits continue to accumulate around these parts.  St Louis yesterday picked up 3.6″ of snow so their yearly total is closer to average at 10.6″. There were some higher totals…some big ones too across parts of IL and IN…

Meanwhile…there really is a doughnut hole of no snow around our area…there has been easily more snow north (not surprising) east, and well west.

 

Capture

So once again KC misses out….

As a matter of fact the last time we had more than 1″ of snow officially was back on 1/17…if you’re a snow lover…it’s downright depressing.

One thing for sure…no accumulating snow is coming through Monday at least (if not longer). We’re about to lurch back into a very mild air mass, at the surface and aloft that will propel temperatures through the 60s at least for several days (SAT-MON…maybe even TUE depending on the timing of the next front). Temperatures aloft won’t be quite as warm as they were last time through (last THU-SUN) but they will be warm enough.

There will be a cold front coming through the area on Sunday that should knock us down a few pegs but it will still be well above average for late February. Then whatever weak shot of cool air moves into the area…it will leave on Monday and we should see another pop in the highs to near 70° again potentially.

A sharper cold front (seasonable for early March) comes in during the day on Tuesday so from that side of things…March comes in like a lion in the temperature department with the increasing chances of falling temperatures at some point during the day. IF the front slows down about 6 hours…we may be rather mild again on TUE before getting colder. Odds are though at some point on Tuesday we’ll be tanking into the 30s.

The model data has off/on been cranking out a storm of sorts. Some moisture is possible…but I’m not going to get my hopes up that this will be a significant storm for KC proper. There is a chance that things get their act together to late, and as a result we get very little moisture locally…perhaps something more significant again for eastern MO.

Funny thing is I remember LAST weekend, some meteorologists were concerned about an “arctic” outbreak coming for this coming weekend…if you remember I specifically said that wouldn’t happen…that the coldest air would be towards the Lakes region…now we’re talking about highs near 70° for the weekend. These thoughts were based on the operational GFS model…and so it goes. If I remember correctly the ensembles urged caution to “arctic” proclamations…and certainly the soon to be new EURO model said no to that…

As far as the rumors of snow go…sure we may get some flakes…maybe. The GFS ensemble data is not very convincing that it would be much more than that locally…

Capture

The latest EURO and it’s ensemble is trying to sniff something out on Tuesday evening into Wednesday…so it’s worth paying attention too but at the same time…it’s been such a struggle and it’s so far away…that I really don’t want to get carried away and anything more than some flakes of snow or some bands of light snow in the area. The data suggests a 20-30% chance of at least 1″ of snow…again lets keep the horse in the barn on this one into Sunday for now.

One thing continues to be obvious though…from the western Plains through the SW US into southern CA…not much of anything is expected…and that is BAD news for the folks out there hoping for drought relief…especially into the SW part of the US.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Rockdoc

    Nice blog Joe!!! I’m in agreement on the potential system that may show up Tue-Wed next week. GFS has been flip-flopping and the ULL location keeps shifting as does the temps at 925mb and 850mb. QPF seems to be a wee bit more stable. It’s clearly not time to let the horse out of the barn. We’ll see what the NAM and GEM show on Sun-Mon. Have a wonderful weekend:)