Joe’s Weather Blog: Wind…warmth…any snow? (FRI-2/26)

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Another work week has come and gone for many of you…it seems that the weather can sometimes cooperate more when you have to be stuck in side wishing you could be outside…this weekend though will be the opposite, and while you’ll be wising you can be outside for Monday…I really think you’re going to like what’s ahead for the weekend.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows near 32°

Saturday: becoming windy and warm with highs near 70°. The record is 73° set back in 1932…doable but it won’t be easy. Winds will be cranking at 20-35 MPH and remain gusty at night as well…perhaps some gusts to 40 MPH+ possible at night.

Sunday: A cold front will be coming in around lunch. Temperatures will start mild …probably close to about 50° warm up through lunch to near 65° then either fall a few degrees or stabilize around 65°. Winds will switch towards the NW at 20-35 MPH behind the front…so the winds will continue on Sunday as well.

Discussion:

Lots of wind and another run towards a record high temperature are on tap for Saturday. As I mentioned yesterday, we’re not quite as warm aloft as we were last weekend…as a matter of fact we’re about 10° cooler 5000′ up compared to last THU when we hit 74°…so while 70° is doable for Saturday, I’d be hesitant to crank it up much higher than that…I also wouldn’t be shocked IF we feel into the 65-70° range for highs…based on less overall wind than the 50 MPH gusts we had last week.

With that said there will be a lot of wind Saturday and Sunday so as a result…NO burning over the weekend..things could again be rather busy for the firefighters out there.

A cold front will be moving into the region Sunday morning from the north to the south…this means a BRIEF end to the extreme for FEB warmth…but it will still be warm on Sunday and potentially warmer on Monday as well.

Monday is an interesting day…1st it’s the 29th…so we don’t see too many 2/29s around here…since this is a leap year…and since those are every few years or so…we don’t have a ton of 2/29s to look back through for record keeping purposes. With that said here are the warmest 2/29s in KC weather history…we won’t get to 83° (the record in 1972)…but it would not shock me if this ends up the 2nd or 3rd warmest 2/29 in KC weather history

Capture

After that it gets somewhat interesting I guess…with widely divergent views about the next storm due in on Tuesday. The EURO is really by it’s lonesome in how it approaches the location and the intensity of the surface and aloft storm as it moves from KS through eastern MO…

The GFS and the Canadian however are faster, farther south and with the exception of a cold air dump on Tuesday pretty benign overall.

The EURO however has a ton of rain from KC southwards and or snow somewhere in MO as well…other model data including the GFS ensembles don’t give us much at all…as a matter of fact more members of the GFS ensemble model runs give us NO precip compared to those who give us at least some snow…

While the EURO model is typically my go too…and goodness knows it handled this coming weekend SOOOOO much better than the GFS 10 days ago (more on that in a minute)…the EURO seems a bit wild and wacky to me with how it’s portraying the events for next Tuesday into Wednesday.

So with that said…here is what I’m confident in…after a warm Monday again(!) and a windy one too (20-30 MPH) a seasonably strong cold front will barrel into the area on Tuesday…odds are we’ll start somewhat mild in the early AM (perhaps a 12AM high?) then potentially see falling temperatures during the day.

IF the EURO is right…and IF we’re dealing with a functional and strong storm system…then we’ll stay mild through early TUE AM…before dropping fast TUE morning for the rest of the day. There would also be a generous precip event around parts of the area…right now, as I mentioned, my feeling is that that will not happen.

Odds favor a drier but still cold solution…looking at the new EURO ensembles…seems to confirm the ideas from the GFS model…on a quick progressive storm that doesn’t do a lot for precip around these parts but does usher in colder air.

There will be another storm on THU next week to monitor…and again another fast shot of cold air zipping through the area. Whether that is snow or rain or a little of both remains to be seen.

I wanted to show you what I wrote about LAST THU…regarding what was ahead for THIS weekend. There were some meteorologists that were concerned about the potential for an arctic outbreak this weekend…well with the temperatures in the forecast that was a poor decision…why because all they looked at was the GFS model…and didn’t take into account other facets of data…

“Interesting to note the large differences between the model guidance in 10 days. The GFS model has arctic air poised to drop into the region.

gfs_t850a_noram_41

These are the forecasted anomalies at around 5000 feet or so up in the atmosphere…notice the “barney” purple showing up in southern Canada and the northern US. That is forecasted from this one model to drop southwards. Map valid for 6AM Sunday the 28th

Again just one model…the ensemble runs of that one model…show this idea…

gefs_t850a_noram_41

Valid for FEB 28th at 6AM…notice the core of the cold is farther towards the NE of the region…whatever we get into wouldn’t have as much bite per this model

The EURO model has this idea…and basically laughs at the above modeling.

ecm_t850_anom_conus_11

The arctic air is where? Maps is valid for the same time as the maps above…FEB 28th at 6AM

I lean towards a less “arctic” solution and a milder potential to finish off the month.”

end snip-it

There is a difference in forecasts…and that’s why I’m happy that you read the weather blog….

Joe

 

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