Joe’s Weather Blog: So dry and so windy! (SUN-3/6)

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Good afternoon…the warmth continues and so does the dry weather. Today is the 33rd straight day with a trace or less of moisture in the KC area. Dry spells like this are not that unusual although more than 20-30 straight days (even in the winter) is a bit unusual. This is now the 6th longest dry stretch in KC weather records…if we don’t get rain through Tuesday we will move into a tie for 5th place! Oh and as of the 1PM hour…we’re 1° away from tying a record high temperature at KCI…my goodness!

Forecast:

Tonight: Windy and cloudy with steady temperatures well into the 50s

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of a few sprinkles or a renegade light fast moving shower. Don’t cancel your outdoor plans about this chance. Whatever falls, if anything, shouldn’t last too long. Warm again with highs well into the 60s if not around 70°. Areas that see breaks in the clouds may be even warmer…perhaps closer to 75°. The more breaks in the clouds the windier it will be…gusts of 30-45 MPH are possible.

Tuesday: Clouds and wind. There will be a better chance of at least some real rain in parts of the area, especially from KC southwards…however how much rain we get is still a question. At least expect some showers in the area. Not as windy. Highs in the 60s

Discussion:

There is a lot going on across the western 2/3rd of the country right now. Heavy rains in parts of CA are creating flooding conditions. Snow should be coming down like crazy in the higher elevations out west in CA…which is great news for the mountains and the snowpack out there. It may snow even into northern Mexico (the country) this week. As a matter of fact some of the mountains way down there may have more snow than we’ve seen in KC this winter (5.3″).

Here is the national satellite loop, for us in the Plains we’re seeing just some weak disturbances move through creating lots of clouds but little else. Although there were a few showers in NE KS and NW MO earlier this morning.

 

A pretty impressive series of storms with a heavy convective nature are getting ready to slam across the western part of the country…

Right now the air of the storm is across central and northern CA…where the rain and the mountain snow will be impressive.

Tomorrow southern CA will get into it, but for the tie being it’s all north.

Of course around here it’s dry…and windy. Today is day 33rd straight day with <.01″ of rain.

This ties us at #6…

So what about the rain chances?

Well they’re are there, minimal amounts Monday, with the Tuesday seemingly our best chance of seeing something above “minimal”. The better chances Tuesday appear in the PM hours…but hopefully we can put a dent in the dry stretch of weather here.

Beyond that the rest of the work week at this point looks dry.

So the storm in question will drop all the way into northern Mexico over the next few days, spin around a bit then come northwards…potentially giving us at least some rain next weekend.

Take a look at the GFS forecast…showing the storm dropping wayyy south. This is a view from the 500 mb level or about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere.

The storm will have a cold core to it down there…that combined with the higher mountain terrain in Mexico means the somewhat rare chance of rather significant mountain snows down there. Yes the mountains of central and northern Mexico have a chance of seeing more snow from this storm that we’ve seen all winter long in KC

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_sw_29

GFS forecast snowfall out west and in Mexico(!) this week

For us, as I mentioned the best chance of rain will be on Tuesday. It’s not a slam dunk though that we get anything more than 1/4″ (of that) because it will be more or less reliant on seeing strong storms developing in the southern Plains later tomorrow night, and potentially that could be a contributor to the rain here on Tuesday

As a matter of fact there is a chance of severe storms on Monday down tot he south of the region…here is the latest SPC forecast for severe weather.

Capture

Severe risk Monday

Potentially there could also be a weak boundary near as well, which may serve as the focus for additional rainfall development in the region on Tuesday…so at least there is hopeful reasons to watch the weather on Tuesday.

Drier but really not cool air will come in after that for a few days…still expect above average temperatures for the rest of the week. Springlike 60s are in store just about every single day this week. The winds will be much lighter later Tuesday into Thursday

I do have concerns that while we may stay mild next weekend, we may finally be dealing with the storm in Mexico later in the week. While a lot of rain may not occur, the timing of bouts of showers may impact the Snake Saturday Parade and the parade in Martin City as well. It’s a long ways off though and certainly changes are possible.

A couple of notes…for those who have “friended” me or liked my fan page…apparently they were accidentally deleted by corporate Friday when they were trying to combine the pages. I won’t know till tomorrow IF they can be brought back…so at least for another day or two no FB for me…hopefully I don’t have to start from scratch again.

Also I’m going to blog about my research into Severe thunderstorm warnings and the frequency that they’re used in the KC area. I’m not sure what I have with it…but I know, and many others as well, that they’re a problem in a sense and are being ignored by many/most? Anyway not sure what can be done, but that blog will be tomorrow afternoon.

Sometime later this week I also plan a blog about tornado frequency in strong and now slowly fading El Nino springs…haven’t started that yet…but will do that either THU or FRI (probably FRI).

Have a great day!

Joe

 

 

 

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