Joe’s Weather Blog: Not done with cold weather…yet (SUN-3/13)

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My apologies about the infrequent blogs lately…time has been so short it seems and I’m running around, as I usually do during the month of March, to various station related things including meetings, appearances, severe weather seminars etc…so I haven’t really been able to sit down a write a blog lately…this week may be a little better so I’ll keep my fingers crossed.

Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with some fog developing…lows around 50°

Monday: Clouds early giving way to sunshine and warm weather with highs well into the 70s

Tuesday: There may be some isolated shower Monday night or early Tuesday but the daytime at this point looks dry. Slightly cooler but still mild with highs into the 60s

Discussion:

As you know DST began today…that means the sun won’t set till about 7:30 tonight and won’t rise till around 7:30 Monday morning…not that we’ve seen much of the sunshine this weekend. There are a few thin spots out there this afternoon and the good news is that we should see more on Monday. The afternoon satellite picture shows some breaks in the clouds, the issue though is that when clouds break, the atmosphere warms into the 60s and becomes unstable resulting in the formation of scattered showers…

 

Here is a look at radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill…not out of the question there could be a random rumble of thunder in a few areas as there is some heating in spots occurring.

By far the most concern though about storms is farther south towards AR and LA where severe storms are likely including the potential for some tornadic storms as well later today. The red outlines represent different tornado watches that have been issued…

Back home the forecast for Monday is a warm one. No records (82° in 2012) but still well into the 70s. Man these 1st 2 weeks of March have been toasty…through yesterday we’re more than 11° above average. This is the 2nd warmest start to March in KC weather history!

So with that said…there is some longer term chilly weather heading this way…it will be a somewhat slow retreat as the week moves along…with the 70s Monday turning to the 60s TUE and maybe WED…followed by 50s then 40s for highs…lows may get a bit nippy towards the weekend especially. There will be a system moving through with a cold atmosphere in place. Not sure if the lowest levels will be cold enough, but aloft it’s something to watch for because the models have been hinting for several days about the potential of at least some flakes of snow in parts of the area sometime later next week. That isn’t concerning overall, but with the advanced state of the vegetation, there may be some concerns about any tender plants out there that have been planted…I thought I’d share with you the last couple of decades of “last 32° lows or lower, for KCI. Remember this isn’t necessarily the the last “frost” because there have been frosts with higher “official temperatures” especially in the low lying areas…but it gives you a reference at least.Just be aware of the overnight lows starting Friday morning!

Capture

30 years of last “32° or below” dates…don’t go crazy with the planting yet if those plants are sensitive to colder weather

Now as far as the chill goes for next weekend…I want to show you what’s happening about 5000′ up …it’s a great way to track various air masses. These maps are off the EURO model and show the anomalies (measuring the differences between “average and in this case forecasts). Notice the warmer than average air for Monday…

 

 

ecm_t850_anom_conus_2

Via WeatherBell

Now look at this coming Saturday…

ecm_t850_anom_conus_7

Saturday anomalies

Now Sunday…

ecm_t850_anom_conus_8

Next Sunday…notice the coldest air “relative to average” in from about I-70 southwards.

It’s something to watch for, especially for those tempted to get into the gardens. it really is still early despite the warmth of late.

Something else of relative note…not exactly a ton of moisture expected over the next 10 days…

Have a great week and the next blog update may be on Tuesday. Tomorrow I need a day off!

Joe

 

 

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