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Joe’s Weather Blog: So you want spring? (SUN-3/20)

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Good afternoon…another pretty gray and chilly day for KC as we’ve had 3 of these in a row now. Don’t worry it stoops after today, for at least a little while as we’re about to lurch back into a warmer weather pattern that will linger into later Wednesday night before another strong cold front comes through dropping the temperatures on Thursday.

Granted today is the 1st full day of springtime…but it doesn’t look that way out side as it seems more November-ish than April-ish. Reading as I type this blog are between 40-45°.

Forecast:

Tonight: Freeze Warning in effect for the region as lows by daybreak with clearing skies drop to 25-30°

Monday: Mostly sunny and becoming more breezy in the afternoon (SW 20-35 mph). High 60-65°

Tuesday:  Windy (SW 20-35 MPH) and warm(!) with highs 75-80°. Record high is 90° in 1910…average is 58°.

Discussion:

This will not be the last pretty hard freeze in KC…another one at least is coming later this week. Friday morning may be colder than Monday morning so gardener’s need to (as usual) pay attention to the overnight lows.

The weather gyrations will continue after a very warm last 3.5 months. Temperatures have been “balmy” for the Winter that wasn’t in KC. I sent out this tweet earlier this morning showing the warmth.

I also noted that this was the 11th warmest “winter” in KC…but that may not be totally correct. I thought more about it…and realized that since winter starts on different days and spring starts on different days (this spring was the earliest start to spring since 1896 I think in terms of actual time of occurrence) I’d have to go back and look at all the different winter season start and end dates to properly calculate how we ended up in the rankings. That (even for a data fiend like myself) isn’t going to happen. If we’re not in the top 15 though, I’d be somewhat surprised though. For sure though it’s been a weird winter for the USA…including Alaska…

Winter though may have a little fight left in it as the NE part of the country, especially the New England area may see a decent early spring snowstorm.

 

Meanwhile the warmth that I’ve promised is on the way.

Notice on this image of the approx 5000′ temperatures via Unisys that we go from the colder temperatures to the warmer stuff during the day Monday…

Look at the core of RED colors…that represents warm air at that level and with the winds expected to stir the air up and enough sunshine…we should see a dramatic pop in the temperatures on Tuesday into Wednesday. For timing in the above graphic…12Z is 7AM

This is actually going to be a fascinating week to watch the weather as a strong surface storm develops in the western Plains and slowly moves towards the east. This will allow warm air to surge our way early this week…while at the same time much colder weather will drop through the upper Midwest so that we’re setting up a rather significant temperature contrast on Wednesday…take a look at the GFS forecasted highs on Wednesday.

gfs_t2max_mc_15

Forecasted highs on Wednesday…we’ll approach 80° and some on the KS side especially from Lawrence westwards to Topeka may be 80-85° if things work out.

Now look at the midday temperatures on Thursday…

gfs_t2m_b_mc_18

1PM forecasted temperatures on Thursday

In reality my feeling is that it will be even colder on Thursday than what this model is showing…

Notice the surface map for later Wednesday off the GFS model…

gfs_ptype_slp_kc_15

Valid for 7PM Wednesday with the colder air coming back into the area area…also notice where the model is showing the better chances of rain…off east of KC.

987 mb surface lows get my attention…that’s about 29.15″ on the home barometers (aches and pains alert will be issued tonight for the middle of the week). My suspicion is that the GFS is not handling the chances of post front precipitation that well…and while the EURO model is somewhat similar there are some important differences with regards to the surface storm location (closer to I-70) and the strength. This is important because it doesn’t sweep the dry air into the area on Wednesday like the GFS does…and that means to me more moisture and better storm chances later Wednesday evening into THU AM as the colder air surges into the region. As a matter of fact the storm (on the EUR) model would be able to generate snow(!) in NW MO THU AM…which wouldn’t surprise me that much. As the GFS model indicated above…there is a lot of 35° air sitting in the Plains on WED ready to rush into the area.

To me Thursday looks like a raw and windy day with dropping temperatures into the 30s as the morning moves along.

That will be an abrupt change compared to the near 80° day on Wednesday!

As much as this pains me to say…there may be some “winter” players on the field next weekend that bear watching for the region again. Interestingly during the last strong El Nino (1997-1998) we did pick up almost 6″ of snow in the month of March in 1998…let’s not go there but the fact that there may be a few players on the field is sort of interesting to me. For something to happen it would take perfect tracks and a perfect atmospheric set-up. That has certainly not been something that has remotely come close to happening this past winter. Odds certainly favor nothing significant happening (perhaps a cold miserable rain) but it’s something that caught my eye in the model data today especially.

We’ll get more into the Wednesday>Thursday changes and also the potential of something interesting next weekend in the latest weather blog. The difference from what I talk about in this forum to what I’ll show on the air tonight is that for next weekend in the 7 day forecast I’ll probably have a chance of a cold rain…whereas in today’s blog I’m alerting you to the potential of something a bit more “interesting” to be aware of so IF you start seeing forecasts this week talking about next weekend…you won’t be surprised (if you know what I mean).

That’s it for today…busy week of weather ahead…in a good and perhaps in a “bad” way.

By the way…it can still happen (winter) last night proved it…20 minutes or so of moderate snow and a quick 1/2″+ in places

 

Via Kellee Flynn in Odessa, MO!

Joe

 

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