Joe’s Weather Blog: Getting dry out there (TUE-4/5)

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Good morning…breezy and cool out there to start our 2nd (Opening Day) out at the K. Another windy day is on tap with gusts to 40 MPH possible. Winds today will be more southerly as opposed to southwesterly…and while warm it won’t be in the 80s like Sunday. There is a chance of a few areas of rain/storms overnight but this appears to occur well after the game at this point.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and warm. Windy as well with gusts to 40 MPH possible again. Another day as well to watch the burning situation (don’t) due to the dry conditions and the gusty winds. Highs today between 70-75°. There may be a few scattered sprinkles around the area today.

Tonight: Some rain or storms possible after 10PM through 4AM or so. Windy and cool with lows dropping to about 45-50° by daybreak

Wednesday: Variable clouds and cooler with highs near 60°

Discussion:

The heavy rain risk for the KC area overnight tonight is not exactly the greatest. See the previous blogs with regards to the front that will be moving through the region. It should move through near midnight. That is not great for the storms which may form in NE KS and NW MO to sustain themselves in an atmosphere that will be getting more stable with the loss of heating this evening. As a matter of fact some of our model guidance indicates very little instability around later this evening.

So with that said…I’m still expecting at least some storm development well NW/N of KC  early this evening.  There is a chance that there could be an isolated severe storm towards far N MO. The storms will be hauling towards the NE at close to 60 MPH it appears. The main risk of severe weather would be a gusty wind report of 60 MPH+ up there. Here is the short range HRRR model that should auto-update through the day. It shows it’s forecast of what radar may roughly look like over the next 15 hours.

These storms should take several hours to move down through the metro, assuming they survive and when they do, they may be in a much weakened state. Really the only thing in favor of a strong wind gust in the KC proper area would be the strong winds just above the surface that could create some gusty winds at the surface. With a real lack of instability though overnight…that even might be tough to do…and whatever happens will probably be flying towards the NE as well reducing the rain amounts to under 1/2″

Here is the latest forecast from the SPC…

On that subject…we’ve been somewhat dry around these part and with all the winds out there lately we’re getting drier. This in itself is not too unusual but now that April is here and things are greening up some moisture is going to be needed. I’m not overly thrilled about the trends over the next 5 days (maybe something on Sunday). There is growing conern out west though where the winter wheat could really use some rainfall.

The drought report that came out last Thursday showed and increasing area of dryness spreading NE and even showed parts of SW Kansas teetering over in drought status.

Capture

via droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Notice those “moderate” drought concerns in south-central and SW KS…

Over the last 90 days…it’s been too dry out there…

nws_precip_kansas_90

via weatherbell.com

The forecast for the next 7 days out there isn’t the greatest either…

wpc_total_precip_mc_28

For us roughly half that rainfall is supposed to be tonight…so we’ll see.

Again let’s pay attention to the storm chances and any changes overnight. as I’ve mentioned in the last few blogs…the wind fields tonight are strong above the ground…whether or not any convection can tap into that strength locally remains to be seen but it’s something to monitor.

Odds are there will be no blog tomorrow with the quieter weather settling back into the region for a few more days.

Joe

 

 

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