Joe’s Weather Blog: Some rain earlier…any more? (SUN-4/10)

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Good afternoon. We’re struggling with the clouds in the area and awaiting a cold front that will be moving into the area in a few more hours. One this front moves through the threat of storms will push south with it it appears. With temperatures struggling so far this afternoon there isn’t a lot of instability to be had though and that makes additional storm development closer to the KC area seemingly a smaller chance.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and seasonable with highs near 70°

Tonight: Scattered showers possible and perhaps a non-severe thunderstorm otherwise mainly cloudy and cooler with lows into the 40s

Monday: Mainly cloudy AM then thinning clouds PM. Cooler with highs in the 55-60° range

Tuesday: Another frosty AM with lows near 30° then sunny and highs near 60°

Discussion:

The thunderstorms this morning were nice I guess. Just some quick hitting rainfall that, for the vast majority of folks, really didn’t amount to a lot. Some areas may have seen 1/3″+ but most had considerably less. Here is a look a the the estimated rainfall amounts via doppler radar.

Capture

 

Now the question is will there be any redevelopment?

Here is the 12:45 surface weather map…showing the cold front towards the NW of KC. It’s moving towards the metro. The dew point lines of 50 and 60° are in green. Behind the cold front the air is cooler and drier..

sfc

 

Temperatures locally are in the 60s…and really need to get warmer because, at least locally, there isn’t a lot of instability building up. This next map from the SPC shows this. It shows CAPE values (a way to measure potential instability [higher=more]) and the cap (which tells us IF the instability will be released in the form of storms (blue shading) [more blue shading=stronger cap])

Where the CAPE is coincided with the CIN or capping…the atmosphere is being held back from convection. at 12:45 or so you can see the cap and CAPES opening up together towards far SW OK and the TX Panhandle.

Locally the clouds are helping to keep the instability at bay…and the clouds are roughly 5000′ above us and pretty extensive right now.

Notice areas towards the SW of KC…where the sun is out. At 1PM Emporia is 76° and Chanute is 77°. So there is really warm air building to the SW of KC…it just won’t make it to us I don’t think before the front comes into the area and/or through the area.

I think the HRRR short range model has the best idea about how things evolve over the next 15 hours or so. Most of the activity will be farther south of KC…perhaps towards the far southern reaches of Anderson/Bates/Henry/Pettis county…or perhaps even farther south of there towards the I-44 corridor. Here is the auto-updating model from IA State

While a few showers/weaker storms are possible in the KC metro are between 5-9PM…odds aren’t great. There have been suggestions of some additional weak showers overnight into early Monday morning but again the odds of this happening may be a few counties south of KC proper so again we may get missed by the vast majority of the rain.

Which would be OK except we may be waiting till at least next Sunday, maybe longer before another opportunity comes along. I received this FB message today…from Rich Hill, MO and Marvin:

“Good morning Joe heard you say you weren’t worried about the lack of rain yet.We need rain bad around Rich Hill for the pastures , hay field winter wheat & so on your area has had rain we didn’t get ,when you send us some rain turn the wind off also Ive never seen wind like this”

Marvin is starting to be a bit concerned. My worry level is still low for KC (right now) but getting only weekly rain chances in an regime of El Nino transitioning towards La Nina in the summer months bothers me. La Nina’s in summer situations sometimes mean heat and drought. we didn’t exactly get a ton of moisture over the winter months and with temperatures so far above average and us having so much wind…it’s something to monitor. With that said there is no doubt that the south side of KC through areas north of the I-44 corridor hasn’t exactly had a ton of rainfall. Anecdotal reports and images from the Lake of the Ozarks are showing lower conditions there. I saw a picture of the lake by the condos at Old Kinderhook by mm 12 on the Niangua arm. The lake looked very low there. The lake is typically drawn down in anticipation of the spring rains and drainage…but so far at least they spring rains haven’t really been an issue there. It has come up a few feet through in the last month or so and is up a few inches this week.

So IF you don’t mind the lack of rain, we actually may have a VERY nice weather set-up this week with low humidity type days and mild afternoons + cool mornings. One note..another frost and potential freeze is likely on Tuesday morning. we should be closer to 70° by Wednesday and into the 70s later in the week. The pattern though is showing signs of getting blocked up and while that may not be good news for rain lovers in the KC area…it may be important for moisture “needers” in the western Plains…

sfc

18,000′ map (500 mbs) for next Sunday the 17th. This could spell LOTS of moisture (rain) for the western Plains and big snows for the mountains of CO.

Anyway…it better rain sooner rather than later. Otherwise my concern level will tick up a notch in about 10 days or so.

Have a great week!

Joe

 

 

 

 

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