Joe’s Weather Blog: Searching for a rain opportunity (MON-4/11)

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Good morning…a blustery start to the work week in the KC area with temperatures in the 40s and lots of clouds out there. we should gradually thin out the clouds and start to see the temperatures recover in the afternoon. The winds though will continue at 15-25 MPH for a good part of the day before fading overnight. The lighter winds overnight and the clear skies set’s up another freeze for the area.

Forecast:

Today: Thinning clouds and slowly warming temperatures. average is around 65°…we should be closer to 60° later this afternoon. Quick drop this evening into the 40s then down to near 30° by daybreak Tuesday with lighter winds

Tuesday:  Sunny and cool with highs near 60°

Wednesday: Sunny and milder with highs closer to 70°

Discussion:

Well there were some strong storms yesterday south of the KC area. Not to many reports of severe weather but there were some hail reports in Henry and Benton Co. Rainfall was also heavy down there as well with training storms (one storm follows another). Even this morning it’s raining down there.

Here is a look at the radar estimates of rainfall. We had some showers locally Sunday morning…but we escaped (to most folks chagrin) the rainfall yesterday evening.

Capture

Doppler rainfall estimates

Some of those totals down there may be hail contaminated or overestimated but you get the idea.

Osage Beach had close to 2″ of rainfall.

It’s a classic case of watch what you wish for. Here locally since the new year, KCI is running about 1.8″ below average for the year so far. Odds are areas south of I-70 are even drier since it seems we’ve missed out on some of the better rains that the northland has gotten. As a matter of fact JOCO Executive airport in eastern Olathe is running closer to 3″ below average in 2016…so the dryness is real for some.

So about the next chance of moisture.

It won’t be this week…at least NOT through Saturday is appears. Odds are we’ve actually have some really nice weather on tap with cool morning and delightful afternoons heading this way as temperatures warm into the 70s as the week moves along. So that’s the good news. The bad news for many is the dryness that will continue until perhaps next Sunday or Monday. We average almost 1″ of rain each week during April and we’ll be stuck on about 1/3″ though the 17th or so at least.

As the rains to the south yesterday point out though…it won’t take much to turn the train around fast. Some areas down there had some localized flooding in the training thunderstorms…so it can turn around quickly.

The next storm that may give us some needed moisture is way out towards the Aleutian Islands. It will come towards the west coast later Wednesday then drop into the Rockies later in the week and sit for a day or two before coming out into the Plains as it weakens. As it moves into the US it will go through various changes though…so odds are as it splits up into pieces it’s forecasted effects on our area will morph too. Here is the water vapor loop via Rutgers showing the circulating storm system off the Alaska coast.

 

By Friday a pretty decent chunk of this will be in to the southern Rockies. This will bring moisture in the form of rain and some higher elevation snows into the western part of the country and parts of the Rockies are poised to get dumped on as well thanks to some significant upslope flow. Here is the forecast for precip totals over the next 5 days…through early Saturday morning

Notice the moisture in the western Plains…that would be very timely for the winter wheat crop out there that needs a big drink of water right now.

What shape that storm is in as it gets into the Plains and how long it takes to move through the Plains may determine the weather around these parts early next week. With the storm “cut-off” from the main flow up towards Canada, it may be in no hurry to move through the region. With the atmosphere “blocking up” in parts of the US (see yesterday’s blog) we’re going to be fed a pretty continual push of lower dew points from the east to the west into the weekend. So the rian that’s out west may struggle to push eastwards for awhile. It will in time but it may take a day or so to saturate our atmosphere from the state line eastwards. We should though see lots of clouds at some point over the weekend I think.

Various models and their ensembles are giving us at least some rain, The main EURO run though is only giving us about 1/3″ through 10 days (concerning). The EURO ensembles are around 3/4″ through 10 days (still below average). The GFS ensembles are also less than 1″ over the next 10 days and around 1 1/4″ over the next 16 days. Again drier than average in the big scheme of things. IF we can get that storm to be farther east and a bit faster…then the drier totals would displace more towards the east of KC and we’d be in a more favorable set-up for some more significant rainfall. Certainly something that is possible as well.

The bottom line is that the next rain chance may hold off till Monday of NEXT week (18th) and how much rainfall from that system is still an iffy proposition but odds (right now) are favoring less than 1″ at this point. hey beggars can’t be choosers on the rain around here right now…so we’ll take what we can get.

That’s it for today…

Joe

 

 

 

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