Joe’s Weather Blog: More rain/storms but not a washout weekend (4/29)

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Good morning on a sort of grayish day in the area. Chilly as well this morning with readings in the 40s. It’s an interesting weather map this morning as there is a strong front south of the region down towards Texas that separates the very moist Gulf air from the cooler and drier air that’s on top of us. For those making plans for the weekend…it won’t be bad and the daytime hours will be “mostly” dry but the the 1st 1/4 of the weekend may be wet…as the rain will be moving away from the area tomorrow morning.

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and cool with highs 55-60°. We’ll stay dry today but rain chances go up after 5PM or so…

Tonight: Rain (at times heavy) will move through the region through daybreak Saturday. No severe weather is expected. Temps may dip into the 40s with the rain…good evening/night for the umbrella…medium weight jacket too. Good thing hte Royals are on the road

Saturday: If there is left over rain…it will be before 10AM or so then drying out and becoming brighter during the afternoon. Warmer as well with the sunshine with highs around 70°.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with highs near 60°. Not the brightest of days but dry I think.

Discussion:

Thought I’d start things out today with a couple of nice emails regarding the weather blog and the benefits of reading through my rambling thoughts.

I sort of think that this is a place to get your weather geek on. It’s certainly a way for me to write down my thoughts about what may or may not happen and the whys and what fors of the weather.

I’ve also come to realize over the years that TV (especially national outlets and maybe at times local) tend to overdo and take weather coverage to the nth degree for really no good reason. Storms that are common in the winter or spring…severe weather scenarios that happen every year are blown out of proportion with big overwhelming graphics and gray/black clouds that get extended and wasted airtime. Different times for sure in the world of TV.

Then there is the blog…

For some of the readers it’s actually a comfort to read and perhaps reread how the weather may play on a specific day with something big potentially in the cards. In some ways, readers of this blog find comfort in the thoughts expressed and the way their expressed without the flashy words and scary language.

Which leads me to these thoughts from a couple of readers…

I know you are super busy right now with the upcoming storms that will be developing in the Metro, but I just wanted to say, Thank you! I am a 21 year old that has been terrified of severe storms and tornadoes for all of my life. By listening and reading to your broadcasts and reports I am put at ease… at least for a little bit:) Thank you for taking the time to write blogs explaining exactly what is happening with the weather. Thank you for telling it like it is and not over exaggerating and saying frightening things about the storms. Thank you for staying calm when I know I won’t be.
Thank you again and keep those blogs coming! :)
Alison

Also I don’t do social media but read your blogs daily. I research local stations all over the plain states and you have the best local related blog of them all. Brian

So a couple of nice thoughts…again whether you’re reading the blog to learn things…to get your weather geek on…or simply for a comforting/less flashy/non-scary way of learning about what will happen on a potentially big weather day…thanks for stopping by!

So with all that said…let’s move along.

The good news is that we really don’t have to worry about severe weather anytime soon. The threats will remain well south of the KC area for awhile…perhaps through the next work week, if not longer…so after a busy week…things will look pretty calm next week especially around these parts.

Interesting weather map this morning as very muggy air is sitting well south of the KC area…severe weather could be an issue in OK later today but here in the KC area cooler winds from the north will be with us.

sfc

8AM surface map. Dew points are in green…temperatures are in red

Down south though…severe weather is a concern for today.

That “ENH” area is an enhanced risk of severe storms towards the red River of TX/OK…connected to the warm front in the above surface map. The surface map above shows the front sitting down there and on the assumption storms fire near that front today…the more easterly flow nearest the warm front may act to help the lower part of those thunderstorms rotate. This occurs because the low level wind shear increases nearest the warm front where the surface winds are more from the east or SE…while the winds above are more from the south or SW.

So the tornadic risk is down there today. Complex because there is a question about instability and sunshine creating the environment for the storms to fire…but the potential is there.

The regional radar is showing a couple of areas of rain/storms. Out west towards the Rockies another mid-Spring snowstorm is going to happen.

Here is some information from the NWS in Denver…where several inches of wet/slushy snow is possible.

Meanwhile in KC…whatever forms SW of the area will be heading this way overnight. The HRRR model shows this gradual evolution. This is a pretty wet storm for many areas from the I-70 corridor southwards.

For us…a large area of rain/storms will develop and move this way tonight. Some locally heavy rain is possible in the wee hours of Saturday morning. Thunder is likely as well. Rainfall amounts may be in excess of 1″ for some areas.

This should quickly end tomorrow morning…probably after daybreak and I really think we should be OK after that. There is a slight chance of a few more showers developing on the MO side closer to the Lakes and out towards central MO later Saturday but to me I think we should be OK after the AM stuff ends and the air will be stabilized after the overnight wave moves through the region. We’ll be in the dry slot of the upper level storm to the NW of KC and there will be very little convergence to get the air unstable again later in the day Saturday.

Sunday we may be dealing with wrap-around clouds…with maybe a few light sprinkles or something.

As mentioned next week looks pretty nice with 70s and sunshine for a few days especially after Monday. Our School Day forecast looks phenomenal right now…cool morning with highs in the afternoon near 70-74°!

That’s it for today….I’ll get another weather blog out tomorrow afternoon before 2PM.

Have a great weekend and again thanks so much for reading the weather blog for whatever reason you do so!

Joe

 

 

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3 comments

  • kennyjo

    Hey Joe, I just wanted to let u know that I have been watching fox 4 as far back as I can remember. When Fox came up with the calm during the storm it really had an impact on how I view severe weather. I live in Urich Mo. and I read Your blogs because they give me indepth coverage of what i can expect over the next few days I have learned alot about the weather from u Joe, I don’t get so very frightened as bad as i used to because I’am prepared. I just pay attention to bad days watch the radar and stay clam during the storm. So yes thank you Joe for taking the time to keep me informed,Old lady Kennyjo