Joe’s Weather Blog: I’m back…rain goes on vacation (WED-6/1)

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Nice to be back with you…on a pretty Wednesday morning in KC. Pleasant temperatures to start out the new month here in the metro with any real heat of consequence about a week or so away. It’s been a wet spring…a wet May for many (although Sedalia was actually below average a bit) and eventually this will turn into steam heat as we start to bake out the soil over the next week or so.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs around 80-83°

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows near 60°

Thursday: Nice overall with highs around 80-85°. Not a lot of wind through Friday as well.

Discussion:

Let’s start with a tangent. I was with friends over the holiday weekend and they were wondering about the chances of rain. As most folks do…they opened whatever weather app they might have on their phone as were planning their day around the apps forecast. This was not the smartest way of going about things. I was struck again last night at the Royals game when one of the nice attendants asked me IF it was going to storm. I said no chance at all…you could tell just by looking at the clouds that we didn’t have a chance. She commented that her app said it would.

I don’t want to get into a whole thing here…but PLEASE don’t rely on your weather apps for “make or break” decisions. They strictly rely on computer models that may or may not be updated to take into account various fast moving changes in potential storm development (especially during this time of the year)

In the end…(we were down in the Ozarks) despite the “crap apps” as many of us “in the know” refer to them as…it rained for about 3 hours in about 96 hours…despite the  apps constantly saying rain was coming or on the way or to not make outdoor plans etc.

Look I think there are some great features to these apps…the radars…the current temperatures…even to a very minor extent some of the broader forecasts over the course of several days…but just don’t “hang your hat” on their forecasts minute by minute to make every decision.

I’m not the only one to notice the “decision making” that people are doing with their weather apps…others are too.

So how can you get better short-term information…feel free to tweet me @fox4wx. You know how I love my twitter and I really try to get back to you when I get a tweet from you quickly. I’m not perfect but I hope I can lead you to better decision making.

Another way for you to make better decisions is to check out your local radar as you make decisions for th enext 2-4 hours ahead of time…again not perfect but it may help in your decision making process.

Time to move along…

Our weather is calming down and should remain so (more or less) into next week. There will be a cold front sliding through the region to start the weekend…so perhaps there could be a few storms with that…but overall it’s a drier forecast. Also our seasonable forecast will transition into steam heat next week. One wonders just how many 80° dew point days we may get with all this moisture in the ground. This moisture will need to get baked out of the soil before we have to worry about 100° temperatures which won’t happen any time soon. What will eventually happen is that we’re going to get VERY steamy (with heat indices near 100°) towards the middle and end of next week. The bottom line is for those wanting summer heat and humidity…it’s coming next week.

Today is the start of meteorological summer…running from June 1st>August 31st. My thoughts are that temperatures will be near to below average and we’ll have above average rainfall. We’ll see how that plays out. The NWS in Pleasant Hill came up with these numbers for meteorological spring…March through May.

The month of May finished 1.9° below average…this is the 1st time we had below average monthly temperatures in KC since last August…8 straight months of above average temperatures in KC.

As far as moisture goes…these graphics give you a rough idea of how things have gone locally over the last 1-3-6 months in the KC region…notice how areas SE of the metro haven’t had as much rainfall.

nws_precip_kc_30

May rainfall

 

nws_precip_kc_90

March through May precipitation…interesting to note that areas SE of the KC metro have had about 1/2 the rain that we’ve had locally.

 

nws_precip_kc_180

Last 6 months of moisture

OK that’s it for today…I’ll update the blog again tomorrow afternoon. enjoy the nicer weather!

Joe

 

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