Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain chances look promising + cooler days (SAT-6/25)

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Good afternoon on another hot and somewhat humid day in the KC area. Temperatures as I type this blog (12pm) are already around 90° and it appears we’ll go up to about 95° before the day is done. There are some showers across northern MO but these are not the ones I’m paying attention too in terms of increased rain chances for the KC area…those haven’t formed at this point.

Forecast:

Tonight: Dry evening with increasing clouds. Overnight (after 12AM) rain from the NW will be moving this way. Storms that are out there will slowly weaken but some storms may make it into the area in the wee hours of Sunday morning. The rain chance right now looks about 50/50 for any one spot. Lows in the 70s.

Sunday: The will be a cold front in the area…that should wobble around for most of the day. Near and south of that frontal boundary will represent the best rain chances…and right now that looks to be roughly from near or south of St Joseph southwards…yes that would place KC in line for redevelopment in the afternoon Sunday. Highs near 90° before the storms form. Rain chance increases to about 70% during the later afternoon.

Monday: Drier with seasonable heat…highs around 90°

Discussion:

Here is a look at the current temperature. If you’re reading this blog on Saturday afternoon…it’s another hot one for sure!

The good news is that over the next 4 days…somewhat cooler weather is going to be slowly coming towards the region…you should notice this mostly on Tuesday and after. As a matter of fact it also appears that the thicker humidity levels will be moving away as well…that should help cool off the overnights too!

Meanwhile the latest weather map shows a cold front off towards the west of the area. It really hasn’t moved that much and it will struggle to move towards us for awhile…but as more storms develop closer to the front later today and this evening…it should get a shove farther eastbound, Here is the noon map…the temperatures are in RED and notice the location of the front.

sfc

 

This front will be in the area Sunday afternoon. The following map shows the front location + the capes forecast. Capes refers to convective Available Potential Energy and it’s a way for us to see the instability in the atmosphere. With temperatures Sunday in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the region and dew points in the 70s…instability won’t be an issue. We won’t be really capped during the afternoon…so thunderstorm chances are looking better and better. Some storms may be locally strong…maybe even generating some small hail and a 50-60 MPH wind gust.

The more important part though is the rain potential. Some locally heavy rains are possible with the slow movement of the storms…while it may not be widespread (the heaviest rain) some could see well over 1″ in places which would be very welcome…especially from KC southwards as I’ve illustrated in the previous blogs.

Rainfall totals will vary from point A to point B to point C…so no doubt some areas will be asking for additional rains after Sunday is done.

Tuesday looks to be a fabulous summer day with temperatures a few degrees below average and dew points coming way done. That should be a great day to be outside!

After that we’ll be tracking various disturbances coming down through the Plains states…especially out towards the west of the area. We may not get a lot of rain from these…we may however see quite a bit of cloud cover helping to keep the temperatures somewhat in check. As a matter of fact overall next week…into the holiday weekend looks to be near to below average for temperatures in the Plains states…now if we can just get some additional rains in the area.

Some areas may get quite a bit of rain…I’m just not sure that we’ll be targeted here in the KC region specifically.

We’ll look more into that in later blogs.

As far as June has gone…yup it’s been toasty …not only here but for most of the country.

ncep_cfsv2_mtd_t2anom_usa

Monthly anomalies through yesterday…only New England, the upper Midwest and parts of TX are cooler than average

We’re running 5.6° above average for temperatures in KC. Unless there is a major reversal…tough to imagine how July/August are cool enough to counter that strong anomaly that we’ve already established for the summer season.

Today will be the 16th day with highs 90° or above at KCI during the month of June. That is the most since 1988 (17) and before that 1954 (18). In 1953 there were 22 and in 1952 there were 24.

The chances of 90°+ days in June really diminish after Monday it appears for the rest of the month!

Our feature picture comes from Tyler Fankhauser showing a beautiful season near Farley, MO. Here are a couple of others.

Joe

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