Stay Weather Aware: Wednesday morning commute looks tricky

Joe’s Weather Blog: Relief from heat…what about dryness though? (SUN-6/26)

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Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. Just a reminder that you can follow along with updates and timely radar updates on my twitter feed at #fox4wx. Love the pictures that are sent to me as well via FB or twitter. Sometimes I get the chance to put them on the air too!

Forecast:

Rest of today: Scattered thunderstorms…which may become a bit more widespread this afternoon. I don’t think we ALL get rain though. Some though will get some locally heavy downpours. Again some or many may not get much at all. It’s just the luck of the draw…radar will be below.

Monday: Hot and humid with highs into the 90s again. A cold front will move in later Monday evening…maybe a few storms with that…

Tuesday: Lower temperatures and dew points. Nice summer day with highs 80-85° and dew points in the 50s. No heat index to mention.

Discussion:

As of the 1PM hour radar has the textbook look (so far) of isolated convection. There are a few storms out there with some heavy downpours (maybe some hail as well).

Again depending on when you read the blog…there may be fewer or more storms showing up. As I type this though there are a handful and that’s about it.

Where there are storms though there are heavy downpours…Jen Zeller sent this picture in…

That storm went farther towards the E/SE and became potentially severe with some hail.

So the storms can form in this environment. The atmosphere is JUICY with moisture…the heat is there 85-90°+ and the surface dew points are there too. There are triggers of sorts…various weak boundaries + a sort of cold front in towards the 36 highway corridor. So there are some things that can set off the atmosphere. In addition what storms are out there now are throwing out various outflows on their own of rain cooled air that new storms are forming on those outflows which radar is showing.

The short-model data has proved useless. It did a miserable job imo last night with the progress of convection on the KS side…I had doubts that the storms out there would get here…but I thought at least there was a chance of some weakened showers would get here overnight…even that didn’t happen. Northern MO though got it…over 2″ on our Neighborhood Weather Network in Maryville

I am intrigued by a potential wave towards Emporia moving ENEwards…this may be a bit more of a defined trigger to set off more storms this afternoon in the Metro…so keep an eye on the radar above and watch areas SW of KC early this afternoon.

The problem with these rain chances through tomorrow night…is that IF we miss out…and many may…that may be our only chance of significant moisture for most of the week. While the week will be more pleasant from a temperature standpoint…and the dew points will be very tolerable by late June standards…it appears, at least through Thursday, that the best chances of significant thunderstorm clusters may be more focused towards the west of the KC region…dropping SEwards in the NW flow aloft.

For what it’s worth…here is the GFS forecast over the next week…for rain amounts. I think the takeaway from this is the axis of heaviest rainfall towards the west of KC proper.

gfs_precip_168hr_mc_29

GFS forecast through next Sunday morning. Notice the heaviest rains from western NE to central KS to SE KS and SW MO

So the haves will get plenty and the have nots won’t. so it goes usually in the summer around the Plains.

We’d actually be OK IF we didn’t have such a hot and thus far pretty dry June. So many 90°+ days…with another possible on Monday. KCI is running about 3.8″ below average and Olathe is 4.5″ below average…areas on the south side have definitely fared worse thus far this month.

OK that’s it for now…I’m torn about dragging the sprinklers around. May try and give it one more day and see what happens with these storms that are trying to come together.

Joe

 

 

 

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