Joe’s Weather Blog: Flooding rains for some… (WED-7/6)

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Good morning…yesterday was a NASTY hot day in the area with heat index values well above 110° in spots around the region. at one point the dew point at Whiteman AFB was higher than most other places IN THE WORLD. The air was thick and with temperatures in the mid 90s…it was not pleasant to say the least. It may not ba as bad today but it will still be a very muggy day and a heat advisory continues.

Forecast:

Today: This morning there are strong storms north of KC towards the 36 highway corridor that have produced flooding rains. This activity should stay north of KC. Radar wile be in the discussion part of the blog. The activity will wane this morning and during the afternoon we should see a mixture of clouds and sunshine with highs 90-95°. Just a few degrees “less hot” than yesterday. I don’t think dew points will be in the 77-82+° range today…but some may be in the 75° range this afternoon leading to very muggy conditions.

Tonight: Variable clouds and muggy with lows in the 70s. Storm chances right now appear minimal

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of more morning storms somewhere in the area. Certainly don’t count on this activity. Highs again near 95° and we may have some thicker dew points again contributing to unpleasant heat index values.

Discussion:

It’s no secret that northern MO missed out on the heavier rains the the KC region saw over the holiday weekend. Today they’re catching up in some cases…especially along the 36 highway corridor. Here is a look at radar via the NWS in Pleasant Hill

The activity, as of this writing (9AM), appears to be weakening now. There have been some flooding rains…and some tree damage up in the St Joseph area. Doppler indicated rainfall looks like this…

Some very beefy amounts up there…the northside of KC got some rain…while the south side had sprinkles. KCI had .34″ while St Joseph had 2.8+”(!) and counting. The record today is 3.02″ set back in 1955

The clouds that are associated with these 2 disturbances on radar this morning will gradually dissipate as the morning wears along into the afternoon.

As I mentioned this in yesterday’s blog the short range modeling will have a difficult time handling these disturbances and hence the areas of rain. It’s really just sort of wait and see approach. Last night the HRRR model alternatively hit us and missed the area with storms. We know these disturbances will be around…we know they will generate storms…it’s just a matter of watching radar and seeing what develops and where. Needless to say though they can crank out flooding rainfall in a short time span…much like we’ve seen this morning.

We’ll sort of be in this into the weekend…although there will be several days in there where many don’t get a drop of rain. It is what it is. We’not not jumping into a hot dry pattern like what we saw in June…we’re just more or less in a steamy pattern with occasional storm chances. It will will be toasty on most days…odds favor highs around 90° give or take about 5° or so but nothing extreme…no 100s that I can see.

OK that’s it for today…just a matter of tracking these nebulous complexes overnight. Highest rain chances appear to be in the AM hours during the days…it appears…although with the complexes putting out some rain cooled air…need to watch those boundaries later in the afternoon during max heating.

Joe

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Rockdoc

    Good late Wednesday evening Joe. I was out in central Kansas in McPherson last night. Heavy rain overnight, which cleared out for the day. Hot, sunny and super humid. Just wicked working outside, plus ticks and chiggers. Nasty, nasty, nasty! Glad the heat indices will start to fall. Hope this weekend brings no rain and pool friendly temps in low-mid 80s ;-)