Joe’s Weather Blog: Just remember…147 days till winter (THU-7/28)

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No I’m not rushing the summer season (but I wish I could rush the humidity away :) )…but I noticed on the noon show today that we did a story involving the inspection of school buses as they get ready for the new school year which starts in a few more weeks…so while the forecast has a LOT of summer weather coming…those who dislike this weather can be heartened by the weather changes coming in the months ahead.

Forecast:

Tonight: A few very isolated storms are possible…really anywhere south of 36 highway but odds are not good that any one spot will see the rain. Radar is starting to show (as I type this) some speckles of activity out there. We’re not capped, so that is helping the cause somewhat. Any activity fades after sunset. Lows near 70°

Friday: The morning will be spent watching whatever drops through the Plains west of KC. IF something can start moving more eastwards…or IF something can develop more towards central/eastern NE as opposed to farther west…maybe we can have some activity in the area in the morning. Don’t count on that at this point. Highs between 85-90°

This weekend: Perhaps the best chance of rain is Sunday (40%). Saturday while again there could be some isolated activity in the area…nothing overwhelms me at this point. Highs Saturday near 90 and on Sunday in the 80s.

Discussion:

As I mentioned earlier there are some small areas (as I type this) of developing showers/storms. Nothing overwhelming for sure…and the cells are rather small in scope…but I figured I’d drop in a radar for you just in case there is an uptick this afternoon. I’m NOT promising you rain…

On a more regional basis though there is better activity out across the western Plains states…and that area + more activity developing later today will need to be watched for the SE movement it will take.

 

The radar animation was struggling a bit this afternoon…hopefully it will look better as the day wears on.

So we’re still in NW flow aloft. That can be a good thing for those who want some rain. In this type of flow…we watch for disturbances to help development clusters of storms…sometimes those new clusters of storms then develop their own atmospheric waves…which then flow SEwards.

This is why forecasting storms in this pattern is tough to do…sometimes these cells live longer…other times they fade away…sometimes they can send out “outflow” winds that create new areas of storms…it can drive you mad and it’s why I say this is really a now casting situation…see what’s happening in the next 6-12 hours…try and then forecast from there for the following 12 hours…and call it a day in terms of figuring out the better locations for rain.

Our short term model data can be helpful sometimes…other times it’s useless…basically you compare what’s happening now or in the next couple of hours tot he reality that radar/satellite show…and hope there is some semblance of truth.

IF you read this blog this afternoon…you can see one of the waves that I’m looking at…in western NE…I think that drops more towards central KS tonight. IF something can get going farther NE of that wave though…that would come SEwards as well…and could threaten us near or before daybreak Friday. How it holds together (if it even exists) remains to be seen…but at least there is a chance of some folks getting rain into Friday.

The highest chances though do appear to be from Topeka westwards it appears. That’s NOT to say we can’t get something locally…but at appears that it will be more of a struggle from KC eastwards. There will likely be some severe weather with this developing complex…again looking to stay more west of the KC area at this point.

Just for giggles…here is the GFS model forecast through the next 5 days or so…

gfs_precip_120hr_mc_21

It is what it is…and it “looks” mostly dry for us.

I’m beginning to think I may need to drab the sprinklers around over the weekend at this rate…because…it’s going to get hotter.

So far this month is just barely above average…although about 10 days ago we were a couple of degrees below average…so we’ve made up some territory since. Typical summer temperatures are expected to finish the month…but as we start August…here comes a toastier weather regime into the Plains with the increasing likelihood of 95°+ weather ahead for most of next week it appears. Dew points will be up there as well…maybe not to the extreme as last week…but still very “KC” like. So be prepared for that.

I might dip my toe in the tropical waters tomorrow as we examine the hurricane season in the Atlantic/Pacific depending on how active (or not) our weather is locally. Have a great Thursday.

Joe

 

 

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