Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm chances (we need rain) then blazing heat (SAT-7/30)

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Thanks for taking a few minutes and reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. The forecast for next week appears pretty clear cut…hot and humid again. The forecast for Sunday (tomorrow) though isn’t quite as clear cut as the potential of storms will exist…but the timing of that potential is still a bit on the iffy side…and as I’ve written about…how things evolve one day can affect the other day…so there are a few things we need to muddle through before the heat arrives.

Forecast:

Today: Even later this afternoon has it’s own perils in a sense. There is a small complex of storms in NE moving towards the SE…IF they hold together they could arrive as early as 4PM or so…but the short term models weaken this feature…to nothing by 2PM or so…keeping us dry for the rest of the afternoon. I will post radar in the discussion part of the blog so you can track the progress of the storms. Highs today in the mid 80s.

Tonight: Dry mostly. We may see a chance of storms developing towards daybreak or so. Lows back into the 60s

Sunday: Storm chances increase as the morning moves along into the mid afternoon. This will be in advance of a warm front popping northwards. Behind the front…towards the southeast temperatures are going to pop to near 95° SW of Emporia towards southern KS. Assuming we have rain around…our temperatures may be bouncing around in the 70s for quite some time with the rain in the region. Should we dry out during the afternoon…we should recover back into the 90s. So the rain chance to me is 50% for the metro as of this writing. Be prepared for a rainy few hours at least.

Next Week: Hot and humid…90s at least with heat index values 100°+

Discussion:

Well let’s start with radar…as we track this pesky area of storms moving towards the SE in Nebraska as of the lunch hour.

Let’s see how long it holds together…it will certainly impact areas of NE KS…and potentially bring some light rains towards NW MO. How long it holds together will decide IF the KC area gets into any rain. IF it does hold together…we may have some rain the area towards 3-4PM or so. Also of note is that we’re not capped as far as the atmosphere goes…as with temperatures in the mid 80s this afternoon…this wave could create other storms as it get’s closer.

Meanwhile the storm chances on Sunday are also being watched. This is another tricky forecast to finish the weekend. The hotter air is building in the southern Plains…aloft there will be a low level jet stream developing as well. This low level jet should help enhance storms in KS tomorrow morning which would move towards the ESE during the AM hours. Depending on where they form…and how long they hold together…will determine how the coverage of rain goes tomorrow locally. Various models are showing us getting storms…missing most of the storms…and something in between. I pretty sure there will be action on radar…I’m just not convinced on the exact placement of the storms…again predicting things that don’t exist is not easy sometimes. There will be impacts to the temperatures because as we’re seeing this afternoon…where there is rain it’s in the 60s.

From there it appears we get hot and stay hot for most of the week with the potential of 95-100° highs + heat indices 105°+ for the week overall. There may be some isolated storms sometime in the hot humid air mass building into the region…but we’ll deal with that as the week moves along. Anything more widespread though may wait till later in the week or even next weekend for the better chances to materialize.

OK..that will do it for today…let’s hope for some rain Sunday…timing won’t be great with the weekend but it is getting dry out there.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

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