Joe’s Weather Blog: What is going on in Alaska? (THU-9/29)
Good afternoon. Another perfect fall day with temperatures approaching 70° as I type this. Overall I expect the good weather to continue into the weekend BUT we may start to add clouds to the Saturday skies in the region. We will also see a moderating trend in the temperatures heading towards the end of the weekend and early next week.
Tonight: Clear and crisp with lows in the 45-50° range.
Friday: Mostly sunny and more or less like today with highs near 70°
Saturday: Variable clouds…maybe not as cool in the morning but still cool in the afternoon with highs around 70°
Sunday: More sunshine and slightly milder with highs around 75°
There really isn’t a lot to talk about regarding our weather locally that is important. Again maybe some clouds around on Saturday as some backwash from a cut-off low now meandering across the OH Valley.
We’ll be warming up as well ahead of another rather potent storm that will be coming through the west into the Rockies and then moving through the upper Midwest. Odds are some severe weather potential will be increasing in the western Plains on Tuesday. Those storms head our way (weakening) later Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. Then as the storm moves into the upper Midwest…we’ll get into a major dry slot for most of Wednesday as cooler air moves into the region once again. A rather typical fall storm in the Plains it appears. IF this was the winter…it would be a blizzard for parts of the Dakotas.
The rain at this point doesn’t look to be a lot to write home about…then we’re dry afterwards again.
Meanwhile the seasons 6th hurricane has formed in the Caribbean. Matthew became a hurricane at around noon today.
I is undergoing some shearing…but it appears it’s overcome the worst of the shearing process (when the best convection gets stripped away from the center of the storm). Now that the convection has tucked back towards the center…the hurricane is performing more like a well-oiled machine and has intensified a bit today.
Again notice the sharp north turn towards eastern Cuba early next week. From there nobody has real confidence where it goes. Model solutions are all over the place. It could conceivably just re-curve well away from the eastern US…but again little confidence in what could be a major weather story next week.
Now to the title of the blog.
I’ve been watching with interest what’s been going on in AK recently. It’s been crazy mild-warm up there ALL year long. While the reasons may be diverse…including this continued warm blob of water sitting in the North Pacific…the numbers are really amazing. I saw some tweets this week that caught my eye.
All told there was a 218 day stretch (IN A ROW) that temperatures for the state as a whole were above average. That to me is an amazing and stunning stat. The streak again ended this past Sunday>Monday
Again the reasons are somewhat know and unknown. This really started back in 2013 with this tremendous “blob” of warm northern Pacific waters…and yes it’s still there.
El Nino, that has now faded, I’m thinking also played a role in this. In reality though this phenomena goes back many years.
The next 2 images are via the Alaska Climate Research Center
You can see more clearly how temperatures there have warmed up so much over the past 65 years or so.
Regardless of the cause or the reason…things are changing up there.
Interesting to note in all this warmth. Fairbanks last winter only had 2.5″ of snow. Anchorage, AK last winter had 6.7″ which is their lowest ever. By the way…last winter KC had a whooping 5.9″.
Just some interesting data/stats that I saw over the last 10 days or so.
Have a great Thursday. Our feature photo is from Bud Simpson out in Monument Valley. Stunning!