Joe’s Weather Blog: We’re needing some rain…some coming (MON-10/24)

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Good morning…it’s a crisp fall morning out there with temperatures starting out around 45° or so. Once again today skies will be royal blue and temperatures will be comfortable during the afternoon. Not as mild as yesterday’s 75° but still somewhere in the 65-70° range which is VERY doable for late October.


Today: Sunny with highs in the mid-upper 60s

Tonight: Fair skies and cool but not as cool with lows near 50°. Some of you will drop into the 40s

Tuesday: Variable clouds and somewhat milder with highs 70-75°

Wednesday: Finally some rain in the morning then quickly clearing and mild with highs again right back into the 70s.


Well we got to experience perfect weather this past weekend and now that the work week is here…the great weather continues…although slightly cooler.

Notice the weather map at 7AM this morning…we now have a NE flow of air…that is because of a weak front the moved through the region yesterday. There weren’t even any clouds associated with it’s passage since the air is so dry and the lift with the front was so weak for our area.

In the above map the temperatures are in RED…so we’ve dropped about 10° from yesterday morning’s low to this morning’s low and my suspicion is roughly the same thing will happen to the high temperatures today compared to yesterday.

The next rain chance will come heading into Wednesday morning.

There will be a weak Pacific origin “cold” front that will be moving through the Plains states on Wednesday. In the morning it will still be west of the region.


Wednesday morning map

Ahead of this front the dew points (surface moisture) will be on the increase starting Tuesday. Eventually we should get near 60° dew point air back into the area tomorrow late night into Wednesday morning. Here are the forecasted dew points for Wednesday morning off the NAM model…maybe a bit aggressive.


NAM model forecast dew points for 7AM Wednesday

With showers/storms developing along and well ahead of the front later tomorrow…we should at least see some of this activity come through Wednesday AM. It’s coming through at a “bad” time of the day though…where instability will be tough to come by of any consequence.

So that will be one chance…although amounts look to be under 1/2″ and I could see how some don’t even get a drop of rain from this

I do wonder however with the front just struggling through the region during the course of the afternoon Wednesday if maybe there could be some sneaky redevelopment after lunch in a few areas. There will be a boundary lurking (the front itself)…we may build up at least some warmth (70s) in the afternoon hours potentially. It’s not the greatest look though…convergence doesn’t look overly great to me and we may be weakly capped…but it will be something to I keep an eye on…perhaps the better chances may be farther to the south of the area.

The “cold” air behind the front is really inconsequential as we should return too warmer weather again heading into Friday. Highs then potentially could get out of control with SW winds and a VERY warm air mass in the Plains states.

The GFS model and the EURO are both VERY aggressive in showing how warm the potential is on Friday. There will be wind to stir the atmosphere up and as a result (compared to average) it get’s toasty for late October. Take a look at this anomaly map for surface temperatures by the end of the day on Friday.


The max warm anomalies are draped from E MO west along the I-70 corridor towards western OK!

The record high is 84° set back in 1944…the average high is 62°. This may be something that bears watching. I’m not sure IF we can fully get there…but the air above us will just about support the chance. Both the main models have the air above the surface at 23°C which is almost 74°F and that’s several thousand feet aloft. Bring that air down to the ground…add in the warmth from the sun’s rays…and that’s an A/C afternoon shaping up. Let’s see if there are clouds etc…that could mess this up.

Of course from there things get a bit dicey. The GFS has a rather potent cold front coming through with a decent shot of cold Canadian air…the EURO has a weaker front coming through that may send highs back to near or or even above average levels into Saturday. My feeling at this point is that the GFS is too aggressive with the southern push of the cold weather. Odds are the weekend will be near to well above average from a temperature standpoint.

Here is a look at the EURO model anomalies at around 5000 feet or so for later Saturday…see all that RED on the map…that’s warm air above us at least.


Saturday evening anomalies at around 5000′ up. The blues towards the upper Midwest and Lakes region will move more towards the ESE than south I think.

Oh and if you want to dream a bit…and this may be VERY doable…look at the trends on Halloween. Shorts for the Trick or Treaters?


7PM forecast for Halloween. These are the anomalies and are actually WARMER than this coming Friday.

My goodness. Our feature photo today comes from @booboo79a

Have a great Monday.




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