Joe’s Weather Blog: No cold air anywhere near us* (FRI-10/28)

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I put a small asterisk in the title of the blog because IF you consider the other side of the world “near us” then that’s where the real cold weather is located. My goodness this is nuts. I could absolutely see a “mild” period during this time of the year…but with a wary eye on some big cold air mass that was coming…well at this point there is nothing really coming towards us…until perhaps mid-month (maybe) and even then how much of it is delivered into the Plains states could be a question mark at this point.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair and breezy. Mild with lows near 60°

Saturday: Variable clouds, windy and warm with highs near 80°. SW winds of 20-35 MPH

Sunday: Somewhat cooler with some clouds. Highs closer to 65° (still above average)

Discussion:

On the 19th I posted this image…showing the latest “1st” freezes in KC weather records (going back to the 1890s).

The temperature on the far right side is the temperature that the low dropped to to achieve the “1st” freeze. So the latest 1st freeze in KC weather history is on November 24th. I’m NOT saying we can do that this year…but we may be getting more interested in the “potential” IF by the 15th of November it’s still looking mild. What I do feel though is that this may easily end up being in the top 10 of latest “1st” freezes in KC weather history.

The 2PM weather map…showing the temperatures in RED … show the 80s to have moved into the area. LAST weekend I forecast a high of 78° for today. Good forecast!

Notice as well the prevalence of the warmth.

There is a cold front in the northern Plains that will move into the area tomorrow night…this will drop our temperatures briefly on Sunday…closer to average.

You can see the colder weather spilling into the northern Plains states…but really it’s NOT that cold for late October. We’ll briefly dabble in it on Sunday before the same warm air mass moves back northwards Monday. Hence 80°+ on Halloween is VERY doable with enough sunshine.

Another weak front comes in on Thursday next week. Pacific air will again be behind that front.

The nights are indeed getting longer…the average lows in early November are closer to 40° so with a decent area of high pressure over us later next week…the longer nights and light winds…I CAN see lows dropping into the 35-40° range assuming clear weather. Getting to 32° though will be tough to do.

So where is the really cold weather…all the way on the other side of the hemisphere…towards Asia and Russia. Take a look at the 850 mb temperatures (about 5000′ feet up)

ecm_t850_nh_1

Black outline…the 32°F line at that level. The “real cold” air mass is highlighted in a blue-ish outline

Now let’s go forward 10 days using the EURO model…notice the changes in the black line and the blue-ish outline

ecm_t850_nh_11

10 days from the 28th…this is for 11/7. Black outline…the 32°F line at that level. The “real cold” air mass is highlighted in a blue-ish outline

The 32°F line at 5000′ or so…actually goes northwards in most of Canada. There is a “sloshing” of cold air into AK…and indeed that may be a signal that things could flip “somewhat” farther down the road…but it will take time and a reorientation of the jet stream to deliver the cold air mass into the central and eastern part of the country.

I think this will occur towards or after mid month…but I’m not convinced we’ll get the brunt of this cold. There is a tendency for these colder air masses to be more focused towards the Lakes and NE as opposed to the Plains states.

This isn’t too encouraging for prolonged cold and/or wet weather.

The beat goes on…and your heating bills will start the season on the low side it appears. Granted a LOT more goes into the pricing structure … but IF the reverse were happening (and it was going to be brutal cold coming soon) this trend lind over the last month would probably be MUCH different.

capture

 

That’s it for today…I’ll get another blog out on Saturday.

The feature photo today comes from Todd Surprise taken out in Wyandotte County…nice shot!

Joe

 

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