Joe’s Weather Blog: A little rain plus a ticking clock (SUN-11/6)

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Here we are…running almost 15° above average through the 1st 5 days of the month…and we’re enjoying another beautiful fall afternoon in the region. Temperatures are in the lower 60s as I type this blog and watch the Chiefs game at the same time by the way. I’ve got some lawn-mowing/leaf pick up to do today so it’s a celebration of fall for me.

Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool with lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds with a few sprinkles possible during the 1st part of the day then showers increasing in the afternoon and especially tomorrow evening. Highs tomorrow will be around 60-65° and depending on how quickly the clouds thicken up…may be only in the 50s

Tuesday: A chance of some light AM showers (especially from KC southwards) then variable clouds in the PM. Seasonable with highs near 60°

Discussion:

This is going to be a more typical fall week in the KC region. A couple of gray-ish days…with near seasonable highs and a couple of brighter days with milder highs. Nothing too warm though. Thursday should be the warmest day…pushing 70°. Rain chances will be around MON>TUE…then another pretty long dry stretch is on the way.

Out there now…very pleasant for early November. SE winds are bringing in slightly cooler air compared to yesterday when highs were near 70° and even a bit above in places. Not so today.

Interestingly…

capture

A warm November start!

There are signs of change though…more on that shortly.

Meanwhile the rain for tomorrow…is still on track but the amounts may not be overly impressive in some areas…and IF we get a solid 1/4″ from this we’ll take it.

The afternoon satellite picture shows the clear weather (aside from some thin clouds) in eastern KS and western MO.

It also shows a lot of cloud cover across western KS through central and western OK into parts of northern TX. This is associated with a weakening upper level storm that will be moving through the region tomorrow into Tuesday.

Let’s go up to about 18,000 feet and look at the flow. Notice the “U” shape to the black height lines. That is the “trough” in the atmosphere moving this way. The red areas are areas of vorticity (the tendency of the air to spin around). Notice there are a LOT of red areas in and ahead of the trough. This tells me that there is left going on in the atmosphere. It also tells me that since there are soooo many of these areas…that the lift isn’t “focused”. Hence the reason why it may be tough to really organize any significant rain amounts. This may be a more “showery” scenario for the area…at least during the daylight hours on Monday.

This is how the NAM model set’s things up…in terms pf rainfall. For timing purposes…now that we’ve switched times…00Z is 6PM…06Z is 12AM…12Z is 6AM and 18Z is Noon

The hi-res NAM model shows the rain totals…again IF we can get some solid 1/4″ totals from this that would be great…because there isn’t much coming afterwards for awhile.

hires_tprecip_kc_61

Some areas may do better…it does appear N MO and NE KS may get minor amounts.

A cold front will enter the picture as well early Tuesday and slowly move through the region. This should put an slow end to the light showers on Tuesday morning from KC southwards.

Beyond that we’re going to see a series of wind shifts usher in pleasant and dry air masses. The thing is…with the longer nights now compared to a month ago…and the dry air masses…the potential for lows dropping at night is getting better and better. Already some guidance is suggesting that WED AM will be down into the 30s…so potential frost is there for WED AM…also THU AM (probably isolated) and then again on SAT AM (this may be a light freeze). Apparently there were a few pockets of VERY isolated frost out there this morning too which didn’t surprise me.

As far as the “overall” rain situation goes…like I mentioned after MON>TUE…things get dry again. As a matter of fact…look at this forecast off the GFS model through the next 16 days (into the 22nd).

gfs_tprecip_kc_65

All this rain is from the early week system…nothing afterwards.

We usually don’t get a lot of moisture this month to begin with it seems…and perhaps there are some stormier set-ups for later in the month.

From a temperature standpoint…here is a look at the GFS ensembles…I think the takeaway is that we’re getting back to more typical temperatures for the November down the road…I drew in the average lines as well (highs and lows)

kmci_2016110612_min_max_16-1

GFS ensembles temperature forecast

So changes ahead down the road mostly from a temperature standpoint. The model data seems to be going off the rails a bit…especially the newest EURO model.

The trend is colder for the middle of the month…specifics though can’t be determined for us locally at this point. I would suspect that the lake effect machine will be ramping up though next weekend in the NE part of the country.

Have a great rest of the weekend. I’ll try and get an update out tomorrow. Our feature photo comes from Laura Petre Osborn…from Warrensburg, MO

Joe

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